Week 14 Power Rankings & Playoff Preview
Inconceivable!
Like Wallace Shawn in The Princess Bride.
Like Michael Scott whenever Toby walks in.
Like every character—and a literal panda—in this Giphy search below…
Live look at Brandon on Monday night.
I spent Monday—the final night of the regular season—sitting with my head buried deep in my hands, wondering:
What was more improbable?
That a 2-6 team with a TW% below .400—ninth in points, second-to-last in the Power Rankings—would rip off five wins in six weeks to finish 7-7 and erase a 164-point deficit over the final month, putting itself in position to become the first team in league history to climb from 2-6 into the playoffs…
Or that Jalen Hurts would score 0.4 points last night?
Talk about turning the ball over at the one-yard line.
Sorry, let me back up.
Heading into Week 14, most of the bracket was set: Geoff and Jess were locks, Chelsie, Josh, and Samantha felt safe, and the only real drama was whether Beth Ann could upset Greco and open a lane for herself, Kelly or me.
But then Greco won. So… curtains, right?
Not exactly. There was still a tiny 4.3% path where someone (read: me) could make up the 58 points separating themselves from Samantha. And then the unthinkable happened: Samantha dropped her third straight game and fifth loss in six weeks, putting up just 91.76 points. Meanwhile, I was having one of the best games of my season and was barreling toward the weekly prize.
With Samantha’s players nearly done on Sunday night, I actually held the final playoff spot for a brief, beautiful moment.
Then Ka’imi Fairbairn—because of course it was a kicker—hit a 28-yard field goal with 30 seconds left, nudging Samantha ahead by 2.14 total points.
But no problem, right? I still had Jalen Hurts on Monday. Hurts was averaging 20.6 ppg. His season low was 11.54. In 76 career games where he started and finished healthy—yes, I checked—he had never scored fewer than 6 fantasy points. Only twice in his career had he even finished in single digits.
Brandon needed 2.15.
And then, the inconceivable happened.
Hurts unraveled. Turnover after turnover after turnover. At one point he became the first player in NFL history to throw an interception and fumble on the same play. That single sequence cost me four points. If Hurts had merely thrown the pick and not recovered his own fumble, I advance.
And yet—because this game loves to toy with us—Hurts’ late push in overtime actually dragged him up to 2.4 points, juuuust enough to send me into the playoffs…
…until his fifth and final turnover, ended the game, immediately yanking me back out.
Season over.
But that’s fantasy football, isn’t it?
Honestly? I’m not even that mad. I swear. My team did not deserve a spot in the playoffs this year. Ninth in the Power Rankings. Four lucky wins. The math says I should’ve been nowhere near the postseason. And you know I’m nothing if not a numbers guy. But man… that is a cruel way to go out.
So yeah… inconceivable.
Not the miracle comeback—but the way it actually ended.
And hey, I’ll take it. Because a season that gives you a story like this one, even in defeat, is the kind of chaos I enjoy counting on.
The Power Rankings
Alright, enough sour grapes. Time to look ahead to the playoffs.
Let’s start with the final Power Rankings of the regular season.
Chelsie finishes with a TW% of .695—the best end-of-season mark we’ve seen since 2021.
Huge congrats to Chelsie on her first-ever Power Rankings crown. 👏
She may have taken an L in Week 14 to finish 7-7, but don’t let the record fool you. This is a great team who was the unfortunate victim of multiple unlucky losses. She now joins this illustrious list of former Power Rankings champs, listed here along with how they finished:
2011: Gray (2nd)
2012: Alex (2nd)
2013: Greco (2nd)
2014: Jess (1st)
2015: Gray (3rd)
2016: Gray (3rd)
2017: Brandon (1st)
2018: Alex (6th)
2019: Josh (2nd)
2020: Josh (missed playoffs)
2021: Beth Ann (1st)
2022: Brandon (missed playoffs)
2023: Gray (3rd)
2024: Samantha (4th)
She’ll be joined in the postseason by Geoff, Josh, and Jess, who all finished in the top half of the rankings, plus Samantha and Greco, who checked in at seventh and eighth. That means two deserving owners—Alex and Erik—got squeezed out despite outscoring both Samantha and Brandon in total points. Then again, both of them hovering around .500 tells you it was a relatively soft bubble this year. We’ve seen far more egregious snubs. Still… pouring one out for you, fellas.
Shoutout as well to Beth Ann and Kelly, who both put together strong, if ultimately unsuccessful, campaigns. Beth Ann was every bit as close as Brandon to pulling off the 2-6 resurrection story; she just needed a little more out of Mahomes in Week 14. And Kelly opened her sophomore season on fire, nearly winning the Week 1 prize and starting 6-4 before a four-loss cold streak ended her season. Still, her 6–8 record and .448 TW% mark a big step forward from her rookie year. Plenty to build on heading into next season.
And finally, Gray had a very un-Gray-like season. His 4-10 mark was both the fewest wins and the most losses he’s ever posted. His TW% of .422 was the second-worst of his career—only eclipsed by 2018, the year he traded back in the first round to take Leonard Fournette eighth overall. (I’m sure he remembers that disaster.) But credit where it’s due: his Week 13 win over Chelsie was the 125th victory of his career, making him the first team owner ever to hit that milestone.
The Playoff Preview
You know what time it is. The playoffs are here.
Your six contenders:
Geoff — 6 playoffs, 2 titles
Jess — 7 playoffs, 1 title
Josh — 8 playoffs, 0 titles
Greco — 8 playoffs, 1 title
Chelsie — 2 playoffs, 0 titles
Samantha — 6 playoffs, 1 title
That is a lot of postseason experience. Geoff leads the group with two championships, including last year’s run. Greco quietly has the third-most career playoff wins with eight. Josh, still chasing that first ring, has one of the best playoff-appearance rates in league history: eight trips in twelve seasons, second only to Samantha, who’s made it six times in eight years. And Jess sits third all-time in playoff win percentage, one of just four owners with a postseason record above .500.
We’re about to break it all down, owner by owner, from longshot to favorite. To determine those odds, we once again fired up 10,000 playoff simulations based on each team’s TW%.
Despite the 5 seed, Chelsie is your favorite (30%) to take home her first title.
4. Greco: 4.0%
8-6, .455 TW%, 110.8 ppg
After a down 2024, Greco returns to the postseason for the eighth time in her career—tied with Josh and Alex for the second-most playoff appearances in league history. And among those three, she’s easily been the most successful, with nearly as many playoff wins as the other two combined. Her résumé includes a 2012 title and three runner-up finishes, most recently in 2020.
But this year, she enters as the clear longshot. Her title odds sit at just 4%, and among the six playoff teams she ranks last in both TW% and scoring. In fact, the only two owners she outscored all season were Beth Ann and Gray… and not by much.
So how did Greco get here?
Despite opening her draft with three straight RBs (Ashton Jeanty, Bucky Irving, and Chuba Hubbard), she finished a disappointing eighth in RB scoring. Jeanty underperformed his ADP, while Irving and Hubbard both went down in Week 4. Hubbard returned but soon ceded work to Rico Dowdle, and Irving missed most of the season.
The injuries wrecked her early momentum. Through Weeks 1–4, Greco was third in the Power Rankings (.636 TW%) and third in scoring (121.1 ppg). From Week 5 onward, after losing Irving and Hubbard, she cratered to a .382 TW% and 106.6 ppg—both dead last over that stretch. Add in the fact that Aaron Jones and Terry McLaurin also missed significant time, and it’s honestly impressive she made the playoffs at all.
A lucky win in Week 5 and the midseason trade for TreVeyon Henderson (plus Chris Godwin) gave her just enough juice to sneak in, even though she topped 100 points only once in the last month. And now that Bucky Irving is finally healthy and producing again, it stings a bit in hindsight that she dropped him to make room for Godwin in that same trade.
Can Greco shock the bracket, take down Chelsie and Geoff, and somehow crash the championship game? Hey—Josh entered the playoffs last year with almost identical numbers and still made it to the title game.
If anyone has the playoff pedigree to pull it off… it’s her.
6. Samantha: 6.7%
7-7, .481 TW%, 113.9 ppg
What happened to this team?!
Samantha squeaked into the playoffs by the hair of Ka’imi Fairbairn’s chinny chinny chin (not to mention Jalen Hurts’ five Week 14 turnovers). But it should have never come down to that. Earlier this season, Samantha wasn’t just good. She was the early juggernaut. Back in Week 5, we compared her to the title track of Taylor Swift’s new album:
“The title track belongs to Samantha—the showgirl dancing circles around the rest of the league. It’s the closing number on Taylor’s album, but Samantha’s sitting first in the standings. At 4-1 with her third weekly prize of the season, she’s got a TW% of .818—the best start to a season since Gray’s 47-8 true record through five weeks in 2022.
Of course, that story had a twist: Gray missed the playoffs in a stunning collapse, while Samantha ended up hoisting the trophy. So maybe the ‘life of a showgirl’—or being an early-season frontrunner—isn’t always as glamorous as it seems.”
Maybe we should’ve taken the foreshadowing more seriously… because after her hot start, Samantha suffered three unlucky losses and then nosedived. Over the last month she posted four straight bottom-two scoring weeks, topping out at just 91.76 points. It was one of the worst late-season slides we’ve ever seen.
So… what happened?
This roster is built on the shoulders of Jonathan Taylor, the RB2 on the season and the league’s third-highest fantasy scorer behind CMC and Josh Allen. But it’s real strength early on was her WR trio: Justin Jefferson, Garrett Wilson, and sixth-round gem Emeka Egbuka. Then the bottom fell out:
J.J. McCarthy torpedoed Jefferson’s value.
Wilson went down in Week 6 and was lost for the year.
Egbuka, once the hottest rookie in the league, has hit double digits once since Week 5.
And Lamar Jackson has alternated between injured and ineffective.
The result? A four-week run where Samantha went 4-40 in true wins with a TW% of .091, averaging just 80.6 ppg. Yeesh.
So what’s the case for optimism?
Lamar finally looked like Lamar in Week 14 (21 points) and now draws the Bengals.
Tony Pollard, her glaring RB2 hole all year, just put up a season-high 28.
Jefferson and Egbuka still have elite ceilings.
And Jonathan Taylor can drop 50 whenever he wants. I mean, what are the Colts gonna do—let 44-year-old Philip Rivers throw it?
Maybe Samantha’s team has just been biding its time and is now ready to strike. After all, Geoff won the title last year with the fifth-best odds. He’s now a two-time champ. Perhaps Samantha can do the same by flashing some of that early-season promise.
She’s either due… or she’s done.
3. Josh: 16.7%
8-6, .591 TW%, 117.6 ppg
Forget Brandon. Josh is the real comeback story of the season.
Armed with the No. 1 pick, he drafted Ja’Marr Chase… and almost immediately regretted it. Joe Burrow went down in Week 2, and things looked bleak. (Believe me, as a fellow Chase sufferer in another league, I felt every bit of that pain.)
After two unlucky losses and some early duds, Josh hit the midpoint at 2-5, riding the first four-game losing streak of his career. Historically, that’s a death sentence: 26 teams have started 2-5, and only one (Alex in 2021) has ever made the playoffs.
It was around that time that Josh started shopping Josh Allen to anyone with a pulse. Luckily for him… nobody made a compelling offer. Because Allen has been the engine of Josh’s resurrection, averaging 25.2 ppg in the second half, earning the weekly cover photo twice.
From Weeks 8–14, Josh went 6-1 with a .753 TW% while averaging 123.7 ppg—second only to Chelsie over that stretch. Four of those seven weeks saw him finish top-2 in scoring. And if not for the Week 12 faceplant (61 points), the numbers would look even more impressive.
Supporting him:
Kyren Williams (RB9) and Breece Hall (RB16) have been quietly steady
Waiver steal Kyle Monangai added depth.
Ja’Marr Chase’s ceiling is finally unlocked with Burrow back.
And rookie Tetairoa McMillan has flashed star potential (33 in Week 11).
And then there’s the cheat code: the Seahawks D/ST, the No. 1 defense in the league, racking up three 20+ point performances in the last five weeks. Their postseason schedule? the Colts (without Daniel Jones), the Rams and the Panthers. Yes, please.
This team doesn’t immediately look like a juggernaut on paper. But Josh Allen + Ja’Marr Chase is a legitimate nuclear core, and the pieces around them are absolutely capable of carrying him the rest of the way. And unlike many of the other teams who have limped into the playoffs, Josh is carrying a wave of momentum—five 130+ point games in the last seven weeks.
Maybe, finally, this is the year Josh brings home that elusive championship.
2. Jess: 17.7%
9-5, .500 TW%, 116.6 ppg
Jess has flown mostly under the radar this season.
She won just one weekly prize, never held the top spot in the Power Rankings, and enters the postseason with a modest .500 TW%— fourth-best among playoff teams. And by the math, she’s actually the luckiest owner in the league this year based on the gap between her true wins and actual record.
She logged five lucky wins, the most in the league—meaning five weeks where she finished in the bottom half of scoring but still got the W. To be fair, many of those were “near the middle” finishes… but flip those results, and she’s 4–10.
And yet… this is still a legitimately good team. In classic Jess fashion, she moneyballed her way to a contender with a sharp, value-heavy draft.
Coming off last year’s run, powered by Saquon Barkley’s brilliant 2024, Jess went back to the well with Barkley this season. While he hasn’t been elite (RB12), her other picks more than made up for it, especially:
Javonte Williams (RB7) in the eighth round
Quinshon Judkins (RB19) in the 11th, whom she later upgraded into A.J. Brown (three straight 100-yard games entering the fantasy playoffs).
All of this has led to Jess ranking first in RB scoring for the second straight year, averaging 42.7 ppg at the position. Add in Brown and D.K. Metcalf (WR19), and she’s managed to weather early injuries to Tyreek Hill and Mike Evans… and now potentially Michael Pittman, whose value took a hit after losing Daniel Jones. Still, it’s just a deep, steady roster stacked with productive pieces.
And while Jess’ trademark draft strategy to wait on QB and hoard RB/WR depth usually comes at a cost, it hasn’t this year. That’s because she grabbed Drake Maye early off waivers, and he’s rewarded her with consistent production as the QB3 on the season.
Taken together, this team is solid. It may not have the headline pop of Josh Allen or Jonathan Taylor, but she does have the priceless advantage of a first-round bye. With her second straight nine-win season, she’ll wait for the winner of Josh vs. Samantha.
And while she faded a bit down the stretch (a .400 TW% over the last five weeks, which would have ranked ninth), you can never count Jess out in the postseason. Winning in the playoffs is kind of her thing.
It’s been a long decade since that 2014 crown.
Is it time for #2?
1. Geoff: 25.2%
10-4, .591 TW%, 122.8 ppg
The Streaker opened the season by winning nine straight games.
And then almost closed it by losing four straight.
Geoff’s exploits this year have been well-documented. His record 12-game winning streak, stretching back to last year’s title run, helped him launch 2025 at 9-0. He seized the No. 1 spot in the Power Rankings from Samantha in Week 6 and held it for six consecutive weeks, longer than anyone else this season.
The foundation is Christian McCaffrey who fell to Geoff with the sixth pick. While others were spooked by last season’s calf injury, Geoff took the risk and was rewarded with the No. 1 scorer in all of fantasy. Add in Drake London (WR11), the volatile but productive Ladd McConkey (WR24), and Jake Ferguson (TE2)—and Geoff already had a legit contender.
Then in Week 7, the rich got richer. Or should I say… Rice-r?
Yes, Rashee Rice returned from his six-game suspension in Week 7 and immediately delivered. On a per-game basis, he ranks third among WRs at 19.7 ppg, trailing only JSN and Puka Nacua. Absolutely worth the wait.
At his peak through Week 10, Geoff posted a TW% of .718 and averaged 132.5 ppg—numbers that would’ve landed him comfortably among the top-10 best teams in league history (if he had sustained them).
But with a playoff spot clinched, Geoff’s team seemed to go into hibernation.
Since Week 11, Geoff ranks second-to-last in TW% (.273) and is averaging just 99.9 ppg. London has been injured. McConkey has regressed. Ferguson has cooled. And Baker Mayfield, once an early-season MVP candidate, is now benched in favor of Jaxson Dart (a worthwhile “dart” throw plucked off waivers).
I don’t know about you, but I’m quietly worried we’re watching a rerun of 2021 Geoff.
For those who aren’t league historians, Geoff stormed out to a 9-2 record in 2021… only to fade late, drop his final three games, and get bounced in his first game in the playoffs. Not saying history repeats itself, but I’m starting to get déjà vu.
The good news? CMC is still CMC. Rice is still fantastic. And London could return after Geoff’s first-round bye. If this team can rediscover its early-season fire, Geoff absolutely has a path to going back-to-back.
And if he does, he’ll start a championship streak worthy of his nickname—The Streaker.
And that bring us finally to…
5. Chelsie: 29.6%
7-7, .695 TW%, 132.4 ppg
A 5-seed with a 7-7 record is the title favorite? You better believe it.
If Samantha was the early frontrunner and Geoff dominated the headlines with his record streak, Chelsie is the one who has quietly built a monster, surging to the top of the Power Rankings in Week 11 and never looking back.
She leads the league in TW% (.695) and scoring (132.4 ppg), finishing 133 points ahead of the next-closest competitor. Her four weekly prizes were the most in the league, and she accounted for nearly half of the season’s top-10 scores, including 181 points in Week 10—the highest score this season.
Historically, out of 180 teams, her TW% ranks ninth all-time, the best mark we’ve seen since Beth Ann’s 2021 title squad, and she officially became the highest-scoring team in league history, surpassing that same Beth Ann team. Most impressively, she won the final Power Rankings by 16 true wins, the largest gap between first and second since Alex’s Thanos team in 2018.
So what makes this team so great? Pretty much everything.
Jared Goff’s unsexy production aside, Chelsie ranks top-3 in scoring at RB, WR and TE. You could argue that either De’Von Achane (RB4) or Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR1) are this year’s fantasy MVP based on where they were drafted. CeeDee Lamb (WR9 in ppg) and George Kittle (TE4 in ppg) have been great when healthy. And Chris Olave (WR7) and Travis Etienne (RB10) have been mid-to-late round steals. If you look at per-game scoring, Chelsie can field a top-10 player at all seven skill positions—QB, both RBs, both WRs, flex, and TE. That’s absurd.
So why did it take us so long to appreciate what Chelsie was building? Injuries and bad luck. Despite an early weekly prize, Chelsie started 2-3 and was seventh in the Power Rankings through Week 5. That was due in large part due to injuries to both CeeDee Lamb and George Kittle who both remained out until Week 7.
And even when they returned, Chelsie picked up more losses than she should have. In fact, her team was the second-unluckiest team in league history, finishing with five unlucky losses and just one lucky win. A team with her TW% would normally go 10-4, but instead she finds herself as the 5-seed without the first-round bye she absolutely deserves.
That means she’ll have to go through Greco and, potentially, Jess before reaching the title game. But the computers don’t care about the path. In spite of the extra game, she still projects as a 30% favorite to win the whole thing.
Chelsie is only in her fourth season, but this is easily her strongest shot at a championship since finishing third in her 2022 debut. Record aside, she’s been the best team in the league.
Now we find out if she can finish the job.
And with that, the table is set. Six teams enter with six wildly different paths.
We’ve got a defending champ trying to rediscover his early-season magic, a statistical juggernaut trapped inside a 5-seed, three veteran contenders hunting a second title and a perennial bridesmaid chasing his first ring. If postseasons past have taught us anything, it’s that anything can happen.
The playoffs are here. Buckle up.
