Week 12 Power Rankings
Today is Thanksgiving.
And while my fantasy team’s dismal performance hasn’t exactly stuffed me with gratitude this season, I am thankful for the important things—family, friends, and the miracle that my dreadful team has somehow eked out five wins.
So in the spirit of giving (and giving you your time back), we’re keeping things short this week. A quick read with a side of fantasy analysis. Then you can get back to turkey, pumpkin pie, football, and—most importantly—the people who pretend to listen when you tell them about your fantasy football team.
The Power Rankings
For the first time this season—and the first time since 2022—Chelsie leads the Power Rankings.
This week, it was Revenge of the Underdogs™.
In Week 11, the basement dwellers rose up like a flock of vengeful turkeys, with Brandon, Beth Ann, Gray, and Erik all pulling off upsets—each one playing spoiler despite playoff odds roughly equivalent to me not going back for seconds on sweet potato casserole. And while Jess doesn’t exactly belong in that group, she did join the chaos by upsetting Geoff, handing him his third straight loss after he opened the year with nine straight wins.
The only favorite to emerge victorious? Chelsie, who took down Josh in the marquee matchup of two 6–5 teams. The win gives Chelsie—already the league’s points leader—the inside track at a playoff spot and a puncher’s chance at a first-round bye. Most importantly, she takes over the top spot in our Power Rankings for the first time this season. Josh, meanwhile, is still alive… largely thanks to every other playoff hopeful taking an L.
Speaking of the playoffs… let’s carve into it.
The Playoff Picture
With two weeks to go, here are the official standings (current playoff teams in bold):
9-3: Geoff
8-4: Jess
7-5: Chelsie, Samantha, Greco
6-6: Josh, Kelly
5-7: Alex, Beth Ann, Brandon
4-8: Erik
3-9: Gray
Jess’ win over Geoff was big—it officially punched her ticket to the postseason. Because Josh and Kelly face each other in Week 14, only one of them can reach eight wins. And since Jess already hit that mark, she’s locked into at least a top-six finish. Congrats, Jess—enjoy the stress-free stuffing.
On the flip side… pour one out for Erik. Even after his win, the best he can do is get to six wins, and with Josh/Kelly guaranteed to produce a seven-win team, that becomes the playoff cutoff. That means Erik is officially eliminated. Two years removed from a title, he’s now staring at back-to-back losing seasons. Last year he finished 5–9 and ranked 11th in the final Power Rankings. This year could land in a similar neighborhood.
But—because we believe in compassion on Thanksgiving—let’s acknowledge the man’s luck has been brutal. He’s sitting at .500 in TW% and tied for fifth in the Power Rankings with three unlucky losses. Flip those results, and he’s 7–5 and in the middle of the playoff hunt. The turkey gods were unkind. Better luck in 2026.
Now, for the rest of the hopefuls, let’s see who’s actually got a shot…
Geoff and Jess are both officially locks for the playoffs. Josh is the favorite to take the last spot.
With two weeks left, the 7-win trio—Chelsie, Samantha, and Greco—are all sitting pretty with 96%+ playoff odds. Chelsie and Samantha, ranking first and third in points, are in great position. Even if they lose out, the tiebreaker would still favor them. Chelsie is too far ahead to be caught; Samantha’s margin is a little closer but still strong. Greco, meanwhile, has the trickiest path of the three, as she actually trails both Alex and Josh in points.
Of course, the real drama is Josh vs. Kelly. Josh currently holds a 55-point cushion. With their Week 14 matchup looming, Kelly needs to at least keep pace this week—either she wins or they both lose—to force a true win-or-go-home showdown. If Josh wins and Kelly loses, she’d enter Week 14 needing a win and a major points swing.
Then there’s the dark horse: Alex. Sitting at 5-7 thanks to a brutal unlucky loss to Beth Ann, he’s one game back but still alive. If he can maintain his points edge over both Josh and Kelly, all he needs is to win out and have both of them drop a game somewhere along the way. The computer still gives him a 14% chance.
Finally, Beth Ann and Brandon—also at five wins—would need the same “win out and get a small miracle” path as Alex plus a massive points swing. Respectfully, academically, mathematically… they’re cooked.
The Wall of Destiny
Lastly, let’s check in with the Wall of Destiny…
Josh and Kelly still control their own destiny. Win out and they’re in.
Nothing shocking at the top: Geoff and Jess are locked in. Chelsie and Samantha are basically locks too thanks to their points advantage. And Greco? She just needs one more win. Even if she loses out, she’s still sitting at around a 75% chance to get in.
Now for the main event: Josh and Kelly. Both control their own destiny. Win out and they’re in. But if they split their final two games, the picture changes: Josh still feels pretty good at around 70%, while Kelly’s odds drop to about 19%. That Week 14 showdown is going to feel like a play-in game.
And then there’s Alex, our dark horse. If he wins out, his odds jump to 63%—meaning there is a very real path. So don’t lose heart, Alex. Despite what I said in the group text earlier, The Wall says you still have a pulse.
Looking ahead to Week 13, the three biggest matchups on the menu are:
Geoff (9-3) vs. Kelly (6-6): A must-win for Kelly as she tries to stay alive and set up that Week 14 showdown… or at least pray Josh also loses.
Jess (8-4) vs. Josh (6-6): Jess is playing for a first-round bye. Josh is playing for his season.
Alex (5-7) vs. Erik (4-8): If Alex wants that 63% Wall of Destiny path to cash, it starts right here.
Those three games will go a long way toward shaping our playoff bracket.
Happy Thanksgiving, everyone. Enjoy the food, the football, and the fantasy-induced emotional instability.
