Week 11 Power Rankings
We’ve spent a lot of time lately talking about the top of the league. This week, let’s shift our attention to the messy middle.
Specifically, we’re looking at the six- and five-win teams—Chelsie, Josh, Kelly, and Alex. With three weeks to go, this group is likely battling for the final two playoff spots. And in Week 11, two of them went head-to-head.
This week, Kelly faced off against Alex. You might recall that when we first debuted the Playoff Picture in Week 8, Alex was 4–4 with a 77% chance of making the postseason, sitting one win ahead of Josh and 130 points clear of Kelly. But over the next two weeks, Alex posted his worst stretch of the season—92.5 ppg and back-to-back losses. Meanwhile, both Kelly and Josh picked up consecutive wins, with Kelly cutting that points gap in half. As a result, Alex’s playoff odds plummeted to just 8% last week.
That set up a must-win scenario for Alex in Week 11. Heading into Monday night, he trailed Kelly by 3.42 points with George Pickens (Alex) and Brock Bowers (Kelly) still to play. Pickens has been the better season-long player. But Bowers just scored 40+ points two weeks ago. The result? Bowers delivered… but Pickens went nuclear—nine catches, 144 yards, a touchdown. His 29.4 points helped lead Alex to his 100th career victory. Congrats! 👏
With that win, Alex has clawed his way back to within a game of Josh and Kelly. And by winning his first weekly prize of the year, he widened his points cushion on Kelly and closed the gap on Josh. His playoff odds (spoiler) climbed to 19%.
All of which sets us up for an interesting final few weeks.
The Power Rankings
Josh is up to third in this week’s Power Rankings—a season-high for him.
Alex took home the Week 11 weekly prize, but I actually want to talk about Josh.
The man is on a mission. After starting 2–5 (yikes) and sinking as low as 10th in the Power Rankings, Josh has been the hottest team in the league over the last four weeks. He’s ripped off four straight wins to get above .500 in the official standings for the first time since Week 3, averaging 138.9 ppg with a TW% of .886. He’s also finished runner-up for the weekly prize three weeks in a row. While not entirely profitable, that’s elite.
The engine behind that surge has been an unsexy but extremely productive RB trio—Kyren Williams (RB8), Breece Hall (RB14), and Kyle Monangai (12.4 ppg over the last five weeks). As a group, they’re second only to Chelsie’s RBs (read: De’Von Achane) during this stretch. Ja’Marr Chase has looked revitalized with Joe Flacco (when he’s not spitting on people), and this week Tetairoa McMillan posted a breakout 33-point career high. And of course, everything starts with Josh Allen—whom Josh tried to trade and you all REJECTED—now averaging 28.5 ppg over his last four. Who’s laughing now?! (Editor’s note: This was written before Week 12’s Thursday Night Football dud. Premature jinx?!)
That run has pushed Josh up to third in this week’s Power Rankings, just behind Geoff and Chelsie and slightly ahead of Samantha. More importantly, the points are piling up. He now sits fourth in scoring behind only Geoff, Chelsie, and Samantha—comfortably ahead of fellow playoff hopefuls Greco, Jess, Kelly, and Alex.
His remaining schedule isn’t friendly—two likely playoff teams (Chelsie and Jess) and one direct competitor (Kelly). And he’ll be without Ja’Marr Chase for his expectorating hijinks. But if he can navigate the next three weeks, he’ll head into the playoffs with more than just a… spitting chance.
The Playoff Picture
Let’s start by once again taking a look at the official standings:
9-2: Geoff
8-3:
7-4: Samantha, Jess, Greco
6-5: Chelsie, Josh, Kelly
5-6: Alex
4-7: Brandon, Beth Ann
3-8: Erik
2-9: Gray
Geoff started a new streak this week—unfortunately, of the losing variety. For Chelsie, it was a big win. But for Geoff? It doesn’t matter. Kelly’s loss officially locked up a playoff berth for him. Yes, six other teams could theoretically match him at nine wins, but because Josh and Kelly play each other in Week 14, only one of them could get to nine. That means Geoff is in no matter what. Our first team to officially clinch. 👏
On the other end of the specturm, Gray’s loss to Samantha—scoring just 73.42 points—was not only his lowest output of the year, but his fewest points in a game since 2021. As a result, Gray is officially eliminated. Even if he wins out, the best he can do is 5-9, and we already have seven teams sitting at six wins or more.
That closes the book on what will likely go down as the worst season of Gray’s career. This will be just his third losing season in 15 years. He’s never won fewer than five games, and his current TW% of .364 would be his lowest ever. Only twice has he finished below .500, and his previous worst season was 2018 (.409). In short, it’s been a rough year.
So what happened? Outside of Amon-Ra St. Brown (his first-round pick) and Courtland Sutton (a shaky WR19), he didn’t draft a single player who’s currently top-20 at their position. A.J. Brown was a huge letdown, and none of the late-round dart throws—Braelon Allen, Jaydon Blue, Dylan Sampson—ever materialized. Just one of those years where nothing hit.
As for the rest of the league, let’s break it down.
Geoff has officially clinched a playoff spot and Gray has been eliminated.
If the playoffs started today, Geoff would be joined by Samantha, Jess, Greco, Chelsie, and Josh—with Kelly missing out on a points tiebreaker. And that’s exactly how the computer expects things to play out a few weeks from now.
While it’s basically a coin flip between 7-win Samantha and Greco and 6-win Chelsie (our league’s points leader) for the second first-round bye, all three are sitting comfortably above a 94% chance to get in. Samantha—who has quietly been sliding (though not quietly in my household on Sundays)—picked up a much-needed lucky win over Gray this week. Both she and Greco likely need just one more win to stamp their ticket.
The model also likes Jess (87%) with seven wins, and Josh (79%)—who has only six wins but a big points advantage over Kelly (24%) and Alex (19%) who is stuck at five wins.
Remember the rule of thumb: eight wins gets you in; seven wins needs help. Historically, 92% of 8-win teams make the playoffs, and we haven’t seen an 8-win team miss since Beth Ann in 2022. Seven-win teams, on the other hand, often fall into the points tiebreaker blender—only about 30% make it. Just last year Chelsie missed at 7–7, and in 2023 Nick lost a points tiebreaker to Brandon.
So with all that in mind, it’s the perfect time to bring back… The Wall of Destiny!
The Wall of Destiny
Quick refresher: The Wall of Destiny looks at our 10,000 end-of-season simulations and shows, for each team, the percentage of times they made the playoffs when they won three, two, one, or zero of their remaining games. It’s a simple visual that tells you exactly how many wins you still need.
Samantha, Greco, Jess, Chelsie, Josh and Kelly all control their own destinies.
As expected, Geoff is a lock. Even if he loses out, he makes the playoffs 100% of the time.
Next are the teams sitting one win away. The model says Samantha only needs one more over her final three. With matchups against Brandon, Beth Ann and Alex (all bottom-half teams in this week’s Power Rankings), that’s very doable. She also sits third in points—behind only Chelsie and Geoff—which gives her strong tiebreaker protection. Even in the nightmare scenario where she loses out, she still makes the playoffs 77% of the time. Her performance has dipped since her red-hot five-week start, but she’s still in a strong position.
Greco and Jess—the other seven-win teams—are right there too. Separated by less than two total points, both likely need just one more win as well (95%). Because they trail Chelsie, Josh, and Alex in scoring, there’s a narrow path where an 8–6 finish isn’t enough, but a lot would need to go wrong. Even if they lose out, they each still make the playoffs around 39–43% of the time.
Now we get to the messy middle—Chelsie, Josh, Kelly, and Alex.
Chelsie needs two wins to clinch, but thanks to her points lead, even one probably (79%) gets her there. With Gray and Brandon in Weeks 13 and 14, she’s in good shape. But this week’s matchup with Josh is massive. Both are 6–5, and the Wall says they can each only afford one loss the rest of the way without a drop in playoff odds. Meaning: whoever loses this week comes out of it with their back firmly against the wall.
Speaking of Josh—he technically needs to win out to fully control his destiny. But even in simulations where he gets to eight wins, he still makes the playoffs 99.8% of the time. The real danger is that he trails Chelsie by 117.3 points, which leaves the door open for Kelly to jump him if she wins more games than he does down the stretch. And both have tough roads ahead: Josh gets Chelsie and Jess next (both likely playoff teams), while Kelly draws Erik (better than his record) and Geoff (gulp).
As I’ve hinted all season, Week 14 between Josh and Kelly is shaping up to be the juicy matchup. If they enter even in wins, that game likely decides a playoff spot. If Kelly is up one, Josh pulling even may knock her out on points. Kelly’s safest path is simple: win out. Short of that, she needs the loser of Chelsie vs. Josh this week to continue sliding. The good news—she still controls her destiny. Win all three, and she’s in.
And then there’s Alex—our first team owner who doesn’t control his own fate. With five wins and three games left, he can still reach eight, which is enough in 91% of simulations. But it’s not a guarantee, because Chelsie and Josh likely beat him on points. One more loss drops him to 19% or below, where he’d need help. The schedule is manageable: Beth Ann, Erik, and… Samantha (double gulp).
Finally, the long shots: Beth Ann, Brandon, and Erik. Not eliminated, but they need to win out and get a ton of help. Beth Ann and Brandon max out at seven wins, and both trail everyone (including Kelly) in points, meaning they’d likely need a win streak, Chelsie to collapse, and a huge points surge. Erik can only get to six wins, so he’d need Josh to beat both Chelsie and Kelly, forcing them into a six-win tie with him—and he’d need to erase a 180-point deficit to Chelsie in three weeks. Let’s be honest: the Longhorns have a better chance of winning a championship. And they’re +15000 in Vegas.
Three weeks to go. In Week 12, we get a big one between Geoff and Jess—two playoff teams jockeying for a first-round bye. Beth Ann and Erik will both look to play spoiler against Alex and Kelly. And, of course, the headline matchup is Chelsie vs. Josh. Can Josh overcome Ja’Marr Chase’s absence and Josh Allen’s Thursday night dud? Or will Chelsie take a major step toward locking up her spot?
Turkey Day is almost here. Time to gobble, gobble up those wins. 🦃
