Week 13 Power Rankings — The Worst League

Five weeks ago, I foolishly wrote that the playoffs “might already be locked up.”

But like the once-lowly Michael Scott Paper Company rising up to challenge Charles Miner, the basement dwellers of the Worst League might soon find themselves with their own corner office in the postseason. Well, well, well, how the turn tables…

Let’s rewind to Week 8.

Geoff is 8-0. Samantha and Jess sit at 6-2. The computer projects them—as well as Greco (5-3), Chelsie (4-4), and Alex (4-4)—as your playoff six. Kelly (4-4) and Josh (3-5) linger on the bubble. And five teams sit below .500, including Brandon and Beth Ann at a dismal 2-6.

Then everything went sideways.

Jess dropped three of her last four.
Samantha and Alex lost four of five.
Greco and Kelly are riding three-game losing streaks.
Even Geoff, The Streaker, lost three straight.

Of the predicted playoff teams, Chelsie—the hottest team in the league currently—might have fared “best,” but she still only managed to go .500 with three unlucky losses.

Meanwhile, the basement caught fire… in a good way.

Josh has been heating up, winning four of five and trailing only Chelsie in TW%. Erik and Gray, now eliminated, rattled off three- and two-game streaks. And Brandon and Beth Ann, still technically at the bottom of the Power Rankings, have gone a combined 8-2 over the last five weeks. Beth Ann has ripped off four straight. Brandon’s only loss? Beth Ann.

The result? Chaos.

Seven teams at 7-6 or 6-7, all clawing for one of four remaining playoff spots heading into the final week.

So without further ado, let’s get into it.

The Power Rankings

Chelsie leads by six true wins. A top-6 finish this week could clinch her first-ever Power Rankings title.

First, let’s check in on this week’s Power Rankings.

With all the other playoff hopefuls dropping like flies, Josh picked up a huge win in Week 13. And once again, it wasn’t thanks to Josh Allen. It was the Seahawks D/ST (28!) lifting him across the finish line and into his first weekly prize of the year. In the lowest-scoring week of the season (a pedestrian 107 points per team), his 131.52 was enough to cash.

More importantly, beating Jess pushed him to seven wins and vaulted him to third in total points—behind only Chelsie and Geoff. He’s now third in the Power Rankings, too. Last week’s dud aside, Josh has been cooking. After starting 2-5, he’s finished top-3 in scoring in six of the last seven weeks. We thought he’d be sweating it out in Week 14… but he’s already in great shape, currently the No. 3 seed with even a tiny sliver of a path to a bye.

On the flip side, pour one out for Alex’s playoff hopes. A seven-point loss to Erik closed the door for good. And once again, Brian Thomas Jr.—Alex’s second-round pick—did him dirty with just 4.8 points, likely the difference. It’s a tough end to what started as a promising season. The Week 4—basically season-ending—injury to Omarion Hampton derailed things early, and the rest was a roller coaster: six games of 130+ (tied with Chelsie for the league lead)… but also three games under 100. And he somehow lost three of those big 130+ outputs thanks to some bad luck.

The end result: Alex misses the playoffs for the first time in three years, and just the third time in the last eight. Better luck next year, commish.

The Playoff Picture

Okay, this is what you all came here for.

With one week left, Geoff (10-3) and Jess (8-5) are officially in. Alex (5-8), Erik (5-8), and Gray (4-9) are officially out. That leaves seven teams fighting for four spots, sorted here by total points—for obvious tiebreaker reasons.

Chelsie: 7-6 | 1,722.32 points (leader)
Josh: 7-6 | 1,528.36 points (-193.96)
Samantha: 7-6 | 1,502.44 points (-25.92)
Brandon: 6-7 | 1,445.06 points (-57.38)
Beth Ann: 6-7 | 1,442.24 points (-2.82)
Kelly: 6-7 | 1,439.84 points (-2.4)
Greco: 7-6 | 1,438.38 points (-1.46)

Seven teams. Four spots. And here’s a key wrinkle: the 7-6 teams all have a comfortable points edge… except Greco, who sits dead last. One of the most impactful results of Week 13 was Greco’s 60.24-point faceplant—her lowest score of the season by a mile. That collapse cracked the door wide open for a 6-7 team to swoop in if they catch her in the win column.

Brandon, Beth Ann, Kelly, and Greco are separated by less than seven total points. Which means if Greco loses to Beth Ann in Week 14… well, it’s anyone’s game.

Let’s go to the numbers…

Chelsie, Josh and Samantha aren’t “officially” locks for the playoffs. But it’s close.

One last time, we simulated the season 10,000 times, and the results show Chelsie, Josh, Samantha, and Greco as the favorites to make the playoffs, with Beth Ann, Brandon, and Kelly on the outside looking in. Geoff and Jess are already locked in.

You probably noticed that Chelsie, Josh, and Samantha each show a >99% chance of making the playoffs. In fact, they landed in the postseason in all 10,000 simulations. But that’s because the model assumes the points tiebreaker stays exactly as it is today.

So… is that a safe assumption?

The only realistic way any of these three could fall out is if they lose and the other seven-win teams win, forcing them into a points tiebreaker with one of the surging six-win teams (Brandon, Beth Ann, or Kelly). At that point, the question becomes:

How likely is it that someone makes up the points gap in a single week?

To answer that, we looked at historical scoring since the league switched to PPR in 2020. The average week comes in at 115.9 points with a standard deviation (σ) of 23.9. That gives us a rough sense of what “normal,” “hot,” and “cold” weeks look like:

+3σ (volcanic): ~187.6
+2σ (explosive): ~163.7
+1σ (hot): ~139.8
–1σ (cold): ~92.0
–2σ (frigid): ~68.1
–3σ (iceberg): ~44.2

For someone to close the gap, they’d need an outlier performance above the mean while the other team has a significantly below-average week.

So I busted out some fancy math (read: asked ChatGPT because AP Stats was a lifetime ago) and calculated the odds of teams making up the needed point differentials.

Chelsie

Her closest six-win competitor would need to make up 278 points. That’s not just beyond three standard deviations—it’s off the statistical map. The odds come out to something like 1 in 9,000,000,000,000,000. That’s pronounced “nine quadrillion.” Translation: She is un-eliminatable. She could literally bench her entire team and still get in. Not a bad idea, right Chelsie? (Editor’s note: I play Chelsie this week.)

Josh

For Josh, the gap is 84 points. Based on the above standard deviation, an 84-point swing should happen about 0.66% of the time—roughly a 1-in-150 shot. Not common, but absolutely possible. And in the PPR era, it’s happened 9 times in 492 games, which is actually a little more frequent than you’d expect. He’s still sitting comfortably, just don’t book your tickets for the playoffs just yet.

Samantha

Her gap is 58 points, which is about a 4.3% event—roughly 1 in 25. It’s unlikely, but it’s definitely within the realm of normal fantasy chaos. Of course, that’s only if she loses and her competitors win. If she wins (or they lose), the whole tiebreaker conversation evaporates.

Taken together, the numbers make it clear that Chelsie is a lock, Josh should feel comfortable, and Samantha is in excellent shape as well. There’s still a path where things get interesting, but the odds overwhelmingly lean their direction. (Please god let this be true or I’m in deep trouble for my repeated jinxes. Love you, babe.)

The Wall of Destiny

But what about the rest of us?

If we assume Chelsie, Josh, and Samantha are safely in, that leaves one final seat at the table for Greco, Beth Ann, Brandon, or Kelly.

Time to consult the Wall of Destiny.

Let’s break it down by team owner.

Greco

Greco makes the playoffs if:

Win vs. Beth Ann

Of the four, Greco is the only one who truly controls her own destiny. Win, and she’s in.

But if she loses, everything opens up. Brandon, Beth Ann, and Kelly can all tie her in wins, and all three currently lead her in points—barely. The four of them are separated by less than seven total points, which is nothing in a single week. A Greco loss means she’s out and effectively turns this into a free-for-all.

Beth Ann

Beth Ann makes the playoffs if:

Win vs. Greco
AND Brandon and Kelly both lose
OR outscore Brandon by ~3 points and stay within 2 points of Kelly

Beth Ann has the next-best odds, largely because she gets to play Greco head-to-head. If she wins, Greco loses. And since Beth Ann already leads her in points, Greco can’t beat her in a tiebreaker. That immediately puts Beth Ann in the driver’s seat.

From there, it’s just about staying ahead of Brandon and Kelly in points, assuming they also pick up a win.

The computer gives her a 33% chance overall, which jumps to 75% if she beats Greco.

Brandon

Brandon makes the playoffs if:

Win vs. Chelsie
AND Greco loses
AND he maintains his razor-thin points lead over Beth Ann and Kelly (if she wins too)

Brandon’s path is similar to Beth Ann’s, but with one crucial difference: he needs help. Specifically, he needs Beth Ann to beat Greco. If that happens, he’s in business.

The problem? He’s facing Chelsie, the hottest team in the league and the No. 1 squad in this week’s Power Rankings. That’s a tall order. Which is why the computer gives him just an 11% chance overall despite leading all four contenders in points.

Still, if he does beat Chelsie, his odds shoot up to 45%—basically the same odds that Beth Ann pulls the upset in the first place.

Kelly

Kelly makes the playoffs if:

Win vs. Josh
AND Greco loses
AND Brandon loses
OR Kelly outscores Brandon and Beth Ann by 7 points total

Last week was rough for Kelly. Not only did she lose, but Josh won, meaning her Week 14 matchup with him is no longer a clean win-and-in scenario. She needs help.

Like Brandon, she needs Beth Ann to beat Greco. She also needs to pass Beth Ann in points. And Brandon too, unless he also loses to Chelsie. That’s a lot of conditions, which is why the computer has basically eliminated her under the assumption that the points tiebreaker doesn’t change.

But if we allow her to make up the points (which is completely plausible), her odds jump to 44%—almost identical to Brandon’s. The only thing standing in her way is that difficult matchup with Josh, who’s been one of the hottest teams in the league.

It all comes down to this. Can Beth Ann upset Greco? And if she does, can Brandon take down Chelsie? Will Kelly topple Josh and sneak into the points race? Someone is going to grab that final playoff spot—the only question is who. From 2–6 to the postseason? It’s still on the table for Brandon and Beth Ann. One week left. Chaos incoming.