Week 1 Power Rankings
Week 1 wasted no time reminding us why we love this game.
Geoff opened his title defense with a resounding win over Jess. Alex eked out a squeaker over Beth Ann. Kelly kicked off her sophomore season with a career high, taking down Erik. Josh channeled the power of Josh (Allen), sparking an unlikely comeback over Chelsie. Greco notched career win No. 99—snatching it from the league’s all-time wins leader, Gray. And Samantha picked up right where she left off, leaving no doubt who runs the Power Rankings or, for that matter, our household.
Yup. We’re back, baby.
Welcome to the 15th season of the Worst League. Fifteen years! When we first drafted at a Buffalo Wild Wings off I-35 in Austin back in 2011, Arch Manning was just seven years old. Turns out we both still have some growing up to do.
Since then, 19 owners have passed through the league, and seven of our founding members still remain. Together we’ve logged 1,186 games, scored over 230,000 points, crowned nine different champions in 14 seasons, and produced countless laughs, memes, bitter trade disputes, and even a few children along the way.
What keeps me coming back isn’t just the annual reminder that I’m really bad at this game, it’s the reunion. Week after week, season after season, this league brings us together. That’s why I write these dumb recaps. (Okay, maybe I enjoy the spreadsheets too.) Other leagues come and go, but the Worst League somehow, unequivocally, remains the best.
So here’s to 15 years—and if we’re lucky, 15 more.
Notes from the Draft
Before we dive into the season, let’s rewind to draft night. Two changes shaped this year’s board: we cut one of the COVID-era IR spots and trimmed benches from seven to six. Translation: 12 fewer players drafted. Let’s take a look at the immediate impact of that decision by position.
Players Drafted at Each Position (with historical averages):
14 QBs (20.2)
61 RBs (62.1)
62 WRs (66.3)
19 TEs (18.1)
12 D/STs (12.7)
12 Ks (12.5)
The biggest swing? Quarterbacks. Last year, 20 were drafted. This year—just 14. With one fewer bench spot, half the league decided they didn’t really need a backup QB. Wide receiver also dipped, dropping from 69 last year to 62. That means more serviceable backups at both positions should be available on waivers this year.
How about the players, themselves? Every year, I like to look at which players deviated the most from their Average Draft Position (ADP) in ESPN drafts. First off, here are the top-10 biggest risers up draft boards within the first 100 picks:
Travis Etienne Jr., RB, Chelsie (+35 ADP)
Jordan Mason, RB, Beth Ann (+34)
Nick Chubb, RB, Josh (+33)
Rhamondre Stevenson, RB, Greco (+28)
J.K. Dobbins, RB, Gray (+26)
Jacory Croskey-Merritt, RB, Kelly (+24)
Caleb Williams, QB, Kelly (+23)
Emeka Egbuka, WR, Samantha (+23)
Kaleb Johnson, RB, Brandon (+21)
Javonte Williams, RB, Jess (+20)
That’s a lot of RB love. The boldest move was Chelsie grabbing Etienne in the 8th round—already paying off as RB6 in Week 1 (18.6 points). Rookies Jacory “Bill” Croskey-Merritt (14.2) and Emeka Egbuka (23.6) also popped, as did new Cowboy Javonte Williams (20.4). Early returns suggest those “reaches” may have been anything but.
And here’s who slipped further than expected:
Sam LaPorta, TE, Jess (-20 ADP)
Travis Kelce, TE, Samantha (-15)
Baker Mayfield, QB, Geoff (-10)
David Njoku, TE, Gray (-9)
Trey McBride, TE, Erik (-9)
T.J. Hockenson, TE, Beth Ann (-7)
James Cook, RB, Alex (-6)
George Kittle, TE, Chelsie (-5)
Jayden Daniels, QB, Gray (-5)
Patrick Mahomes, QB, Beth Ann (-5)
Tight ends and QBs were the biggest sliders. The most notable RB: James Cook, who fell to Alex six spots later than expected—and promptly put up 21.2 points (RB4). Value, unlocked.
So who “won” the draft? According to ESPN’s draft grades, Kelly! Last season’s Poop Bowl loser is the preseason favorite.
ESPN projects that Kelly will rebound from the Poop Bowl to win a championship.
But history says: don’t bet on it.
Yes, sometimes the projections hit—last year’s top-3 were Erik, Samantha, and Geoff. Samantha finished #1 in the Power Rankings, Geoff won the title… but Erik, the #1 favorite went 5-9 and finished 11th.
Meanwhile, ESPN’s bottom-3 (Alex, Brandon, Jess) far exceeded expectations: Alex became the league’s top scorer, Brandon finished 5th in the Power Rankings, and Jess spent more weeks at #1 in the Power Rankings than any other team owner before finishing 3rd in the playoffs.
And the curse of the top pick is real: since we’ve tracked it, no team projected to finish 1st has finished higher than 6th. On the flip side, the team owner pegged to finish last has never finished worse than 5th—and includes three runners-up and two third-place finishes. That’s bad news if you’re Kelly and great news if you’re Greco.
Bottom line: It don’t mean a thing.
The Power Rankings
But enough about the preseason, we’ve got actual results to analyze.
Samantha picks up where she left off, leading the Power Rankings once again.
In Week 1, I couldn’t help but notice how many top picks fizzled, especially early-round WRs.
Case in point, 15 RBs and 15 WRs were drafted in the first three rounds. Over half of those wideouts (eight in all) failed to reach double digits: Ja’Marr Chase, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Nico Collins, Brian Thomas Jr., A.J. Brown, Davante Adams, Tee Higgins and Tyreek Hill. By contrast, only one running back, Omarion Hampton, came in under 10 points.
No one felt it more than Gray (St. Brown and A.J. Brown) and Alex (Collins, Brian Thomas Jr., Hampton). Both finished under 100 points—Gray at 92.42, Alex at 87.04—with Alex lucking into a win only because Beth Ann’s squad managed an even leaner 82.82 after Xavier Worthy’s early injury left a goose egg.
But while early-round picks sputtered, mid-round receivers powered several teams to victory. Fifth- through eighth-round steals scoring 18+ swung matchups—most notably Geoff with Zay Flowers (28.1), Samantha with Emeka Egbuka (23.6), and Kelly with Marvin Harrison Jr. (18.1). All finished in the top three in this week’s Power Rankings.
Samantha, in particular, has to be feeling great. (And I know she is, having won all three of her Week 1 matchups across various leagues, something she calls “triple confetti.”) Long known as a slow starter—she went 0-2 in each of her first six seasons—she finally broke that curse with a 2-0 opening last year. Now she’s out even faster: 142.66 points in Week 1, her best season start ever.
History likes her odds. In 14 seasons, 11 Week 1 leaders have reached the playoffs, and two of the three that missed would have made it under today’s six-team format. That group includes three eventual champions and seven total top-three finishes. Last year’s Week 1 leader, Alex, ended up as the league’s highest scorer; the year before, Erik rode the same start all the way to a title.
Speaking of Erik, luck—as always—played a role in Week 1. Brandon and Erik both landed in the top half of the Power Rankings yet still opened the year with losses. And Josh is up to his old tricks—snagging a win with only 105.66 points, powered by a heroic Josh Allen outing. Over the past four seasons Josh owns a TW% of just .455, yet he’s reached the playoffs three times, sneaking in despite bottom-half finishes in the Power Rankings.
Of course, it’s still just Week 1. Plenty of those early-round receivers will bounce back, and Gray and Alex should, too. Likewise, the current top trio won’t stay untouched all season.
The teams that might really last are the ones who mined serious late-round value. Two standouts that I have my eye on:
Jess: Ninth in the opening Power Rankings, but she’s got upside. Eighth- and ninth-rounders Javonte Williams and Michael Pittman both cleared 20 points in Week 1, giving her two options who can offset Tyreek Hill’s slow start. And with plenty of QBs on the waiver wire, she can patch over the injury to Brock Purdy.
Kelly: Already second in the Week 1 Power Rankings with more room to grow. She has Deebo Samuel and Keenan Allen—both top-10 WRs in Week 1—sitting on her bench after being drafted in the eighth and tenth rounds. Caleb Williams is a question mark at QB, but he delivered, at least in fantasy, right out of the gate. Maybe that’s enough to overcome ESPN’s draft-day predicted finish jinx.
That’s it for Week 1—we’re officially underway. Here’s to more tense matchups, maddening roster decisions sure to go wrong, late-night waiver wire pickups and, of course, comedy in the group chat.
Fifteen seasons in, and somehow it still feels like we’re only just getting started.
