Week 8 Power Rankings
Don’t look now. But Jess might be a monster. 🧟
After back-to-back Poop Bowl crowns in 2022 and 2023, Jess came back from the dead last year with a third-place finish, using Saquon Barkley to terrorize the league. This year, her first-round pick had been sluggish, but in Week 8, Saquon finally came alive with a monstrous 33.4-point outing that powered her past Chelsie in a matchup between two playoff-caliber teams.
The win lifts Jess to 6-2, just a couple dozen points behind Samantha for the second playoff bye. And she’s doing it with a roster that should’ve been buried weeks ago—Tyreek Hill is done for the year, Mike Evans is on IR, and A.J. Brown was on bye this week. Yet somehow, Jess keeps digging up depth from a draft deeper than most graves. Javonte Williams, Michael Pittman, and Quinshon Judkins were all late-round finds, and Drake Maye was undrafted.
Geoff and Samantha have owned the top of the Power Rankings all season, and Chelsie’s been earning plenty of praise (or are they jinxes?) lately. But this week, it’s Jess’s turn in the moonlight.
And she’s looking downright scary.
The Power Rankings
Geoff stays perfect (8-0) though not entirely out of arm’s reach of the competition.
With her big Week 8 win, Jess put some distance between herself and the middle of the pack, elevating herself near the top. She’s now knocking on the door of that upper tier that includes Samantha, Geoff, and Chelsie.
After that, though, things get a little eerie. Lots of flawed teams all below .500 in TW%. One name to watch is Alex, who got a huge 33.6-point game from James Cook to take down Gray and climb to 4-4. Just behind him is Erik, who had been hanging around .500 but now finds his TW% starting to dip. Then there’s Josh, Greco, and Gray, a trio of teams with similar performance but varying degrees of luck. Greco and Gray are separated by just two true games—but while Greco sits at 5-3, Gray is stuck at 2-6.
At the bottom, it’s Brandon, Kelly, and Beth Ann bringing up the rear. Kelly’s 66.0 points and Beth Ann’s 57.96 were the lowest scores by any team owner this season—and by a wide margin. Four team owners actually scored more than their combined total this week. Beth Ann’s 57.96 points, a career low, is also the fifth-fewest in the PPR era and the lowest in more than two years.
The Playoff Picture
Now that we’ve officially kicked off the second half of the season, it’s time to turn our attention to the looming playoff race.
With six weeks to go, here are the standings by record—with the teams in bold making the playoffs if they started today:
8-0: Geoff
7-1:
6-2: Samantha, Jess
5-3: Greco
4-4: Chelsie, Alex, Kelly
3-5: Josh
2-6: Erik, Gray, Brandon, Beth Ann
It’s been a long time since we’ve seen so little parity—and so much separation between the haves and the have-nots of the Worst League. Geoff stands alone as our first-ever 8-0 team, while four others have sunk to 2-6. In other words, Geoff has as many wins as Erik, Gray, Brandon, and Beth Ann combined. (And yes, those four are somehow four of the last six champions.)
Normally, this is where I’d say something like “it’s anyone’s game.” But this year? It might already be locked up.
So let’s take a look at our first official Playoff Picture.
If the playoffs started today, Geoff, Samantha, Jess, Chelsie, Greco, and Alex would all be in—and the computer thinks those are the same six who’ll still be there in six weeks. Each has a better than 77% chance of making the playoffs.
Geoff, Samantha, and Jess are 6-2 or better, and historically, 94% of teams in that position go on to make the postseason. In a year where much of the league is already three to four games back, the model views them as near locks. Geoff, in particular, made the playoffs in all 10,000 simulations—though technically, there’s still a microscopic path where he doesn’t.
Despite the worse record, the computer actually likes Chelsie (4-4) better than Greco (5-3)—helped by the fact she’s second in points and more than 100 points clear of Greco. Remember, Greco currently sits eighth in the Power Rankings, and she’s perhaps the most vulnerable of the current playoff teams to fall out. Either her or Alex, who’s 4-4 but trending up. Alex is tied with Geoff for the second-highest TW% over the last three weeks and has the easiest remaining schedule: yes, he plays Jess this week, but then he has Brandon, Kelly, and Beth Ann. You’re welcome in advance for that Week 10 win, Alex.
Of the non-playoff teams, Kelly (4-4) and Josh (3-5) have the best odds of sneaking in—but it’s still longer odds than you might expect at 17–25%. Typically, the top outsider at this stage has around a 50% chance, but both trail in points and face tough roads ahead. Kelly, in particular, has the lowest scoring average in the league and the hardest remaining schedule—Chelsie, Jess, and Geoff—plus a Week 14 showdown with Josh that could end both their seasons.
Finally, there are the long shots: Erik (5%), Gray (3%), Brandon (2%), and Beth Ann (1%). Historically, 2-6 teams make the playoffs just 8% of the time, so even that precedent might be generous. Technically, each could still control their own destiny—win out and you’re in with roughly 95% certainty. But the road from 2-6 to 8-6 is steep with little margin for error. At 7-7, there is a sliver of hope via a points tiebreaker, but that’s more like a coin flip… and one most of these teams have been losing all year.
It’s officially spooky season! And if you’re like me, the real horror just might be your roster on Sunday. Trick or treat, everyone.
