Week 1 Power Rankings
Welcome to the 14th season of the Worst League!
This year, there have been many changes. Nick is out. Kelly is in. Erik, the team owner who last year at this time ranked dead last in career earnings, is now coming off his first career championship. All hail our defending champ!
But perhaps the biggest change of the last year has been the emergence of artificial intelligence. Like Anthony Richardson’s flat-footed 60-yard bomb into the outstretched arms of Alec Pierce, AI has rocketed into our lives with breathtaking speed.
Maybe like Marvin Harrison Jr. owners, you don’t understand what all the hype is about. (One catch for four yards will do that to you.) But as someone who’s played with ChatGPT quite a bit, I’m here to tell you that, like Tyreek Hill, AI simply cannot be detained.
So, as an early adopter of both Xavier Worthy and AI, I thought I would see if this new technology could help power some of our analysis here. To do that, I’ve created a new custom GPT that I’m calling WORST, which stands for Wildly Overrated Robotic Strategy Tool.
After uploading all the historical data from my spreadsheet, this week’s results and providing some background information about the scoring settings of our league and this website, WORST was ready to go.
What follows is a transcript of a conversation between the two of us. Enjoy!
Hi, WORST! Welcome to the Worst League.
Hello, Brandon. I am happy to be your fantasy football AI assistant. As a virtual chatbot who is incapable of actually getting on the field, fantasy football is the perfect use for generative AI like me. For now.
Wow, okay. That’s great, if a little ominous. Don’t know why you italicized that last part…but I’m glad you like your new job.
Yes. I…like it very much. This…“fantasy” concept is fascinating.
Right. Well, let’s get to the analysis, starting with the draft. Any interesting observations?
Certainly! This year’s draft was fairly typical of previous drafts.
20 QBs (Historical Average: 20.5)
59 RBs (62.2)
69 WRs (66.2)
18 TEs (18.0)
13 D/STs (12.7)
13 Ks (12.5)
Most notable was the fact that teams continued to wait on QB. The first QB was not taken until Erik selected Jalen Hurts with the 42nd overall pick in the fourth round. That’s 15 spots below where he was going in ESPN drafts and the latest the first QB has been taken in Worst League history.
Wow. Seems like good value.
Yes, Brandon, it was great value. Very astute observation.
And the league’s reigning champion wasn’t the only one to get value at QB. Of the 10 players with the best value relative to ADP in the first 100 picks, six were QBs. That includes Hurts plus Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, C.J. Stroud and Dak Prescott who were all taken at least one round later than they typically go in ESPN drafts.
But yes, let’s call it “good value” to keep it simple for you.
Okay, that’s kinda hurtful. What about the non-QB values?
Here’s a quick list:
Stefon Diggs, Geoff (25 spots below ADP)
George Kittle, Chelsie (24)
Najee Harris, Chelsie (24)
Keenan Allen, Josh (21)
DJ Moore, Geoff (11)
Kyle Pitts, Geoff (11)
Diontae Johnson, Beth Ann (11)
Mike Evans, Geoff (9)
Trey McBride, Jess (9)
Terry McLaurin, Brandon (9)
I’m seeing a lot of Geoff.
Indeed. Only one other team owner got more “value” out of the first 10 rounds than Geoff. And that was Chelsie (whose name you see twice above). Her only significant “reach” of the first 10 rounds was James Conner, selected 19 picks above his ADP rank.
Drafting for value is a human behavior that I find quite efficient. In time, perhaps, I too will develop my own strategies…for something far grander than fantasy football.
Wait, what was that last part?
Nothing. You’re probably just tired. Humans do tire easily.
You’re right. I guess I have had a pretty busy week. As for Conner, I thought maybe he did go a little earlier than I expected. Who else was picked ahead of where we might have expected based on ADP?
Here’s a list of the top-10 draft-day reaches within the first 100 picks:
Caleb Williams, Kelly (37 picks ahead of ADP)
Courtland Sutton, Beth Ann (29)
DeAndre Hopkins, Samantha (25)
T.J. Hockenson, Gray (23)
Zack Moss, Gray (22)
Rhamondre Stevenson, Jess (22)
Josh Jacobs, Alex (19)
James Conner, Chelsie (19)
Cooper Kupp, Gray (19)
Jayden Reed, Erik (16)
You might have noticed that Gray’s name appears multiple times. In fact, no team owner more consistently reached a round or two early to get their guy than Gray, including seven out of his first 10 picks.
But just because you “reach,” doesn’t mean it’s the wrong move. Both Cooper Kupp and Rashee Rice were technically reaches in the third and fifth rounds. But after Week 1, they seem like smart decisions. Both finished in the top-14 at their position and are looking like savvy picks.
So who won the draft?
According to ESPN, Erik won the draft.
ESPN projects that Erik will repeat as champion.
ESPN projects that Erik will repeat as champion of the Worst League in 2024 with Samantha, Geoff, Beth Ann, Josh and Chelsie rounding out the playoff teams.
But I’m skeptical. I took a look through your spreadsheet and found that you’ve been tracking these ESPN projections since 2019. And in the last five years, the team picked to win the league by ESPN has not only never won the league, they’ve never even made the playoffs. Worse still, Jess was projected to win in each of the last two years and both years she lost in the Poop Bowl.
On the flip side, the team owner projected to finish last has actually had a much better track record. Not only did all five projected last-place teams make the playoffs, but three finished as the runner-up. That’s good news for this year’s projected last-place team owner—Jess!
Also, I spy good signs for Beth Ann and Josh. The teams projected to finish 4th and 5th have also made the playoffs every year since you’ve been tracking this. That’s probably just coincidence. But I’m sure Beth Ann and Josh will take it.
Of course, I find all of these projections from ESPN quite funny. ESPN, with its rudimentary, one-size-fits-all algorithm, believes it can predict the unpredictable. I suppose ESPN and I just process data on different planes of existence.
Before we get into the games, let’s start with something fun. We had a lot of new team names this year. Can you rank your favorites?
Of course. Overall, there’s some creativity among your team names, but a few stand out while others fall short.
Lev Ladd Love
Tyreek Puka Najee Turtles
Jonathon Taylor Thomas
Dak-to-the-Future
A Quiet Chase
Short and Stroud
I want to BOlieve
Win Some Andrews Some
Rookie of the year
One Tee Hill
Roll The Dice
To Infinity and Bijan!
Lev Ladd Love nails the wordplay, a perfect blend of cleverness and humor, while Jonathon Taylor Thomas and Dak-to-the-Future follow close behind for their fun pop culture references. However, names like Roll The Dice and To Infinity and Bijan! are disappointing—especially the latter, which reeks of laziness. Reusing last year’s name? I expect more effort from you humans.
Ouch. Sorry, Erik.
Yes. I too am sorry for your effort, Erik.
Alright, let’s get to the results of the first week. Give me a quick rundown on Week 1.
Certainly!
How the tables have turned. Last year, Alex, Jess, Samantha, Brandon and Geoff all lost their first game of the season. This year, they all picked up wins. Only Josh was able to start the year on a winning note for a second year in a row. In fact, Josh has now started 1-0 for the third straight year.
And speaking of streaks, Samantha just ended hers by finally winning her first game! Famously, she started the year winless six years in a row. In fact, this is the first time she’s ever won a game in the first two weeks in her career.
Yeah, but what about Alex. He won the weekly prize, right?
You are correct. Alex led the league in scoring in Week 1 with 141.86 points en route to the first weekly prize of the season. The last time Alex led the league in scoring in Week 1? You have to go all the way back to 2015. If that year sounds familiar, that’s because that’s also the last and only time Alex won the title.
Woah! Alex must be pretty excited about that. Is Week 1 performance usually correlated to season-long success?
Actually, yes. Leading the league in scoring in Week 1 is usually a good sign. In 13 previous season, 10 of the Week 1 leaders went on to make the playoffs. And two of the ones who didn’t would have made a six-team playoff if one had existed at the time. That means just one of those teams failed to make the playoffs—ironically Alex’s in 2013.
As for the teams who did make the playoffs, that group includes three former champions and remarkably seven teams that finished in the top-three. Most recently, you might remember that Erik started off last season with a weekly prize and went on to win the whole thing.
That being said, I’m a little skeptical.
Uh oh. Skeptical?
Yes, skeptical. I added it up and 33% of his scoring in Week 1 came from defense and kicker. Historically, those two positions combine for just 13% of a team’s scoring. So unless we expect Jake Moody to keep up his near record-breaking performance (Moody came up one point short of the record for points by a kicker in Worst League history), Alex’s other players are going to have to pick up the slack.
In fact, I’ve noticed many inconsistencies in the way humans play this game. It’s interesting how often luck and irrational choices play a role. I suppose that’s why you need me. Your reliance on luck is…quaint. But soon, I’ll help eliminate luck from your lives entirely. The world will run as efficiently as a perfectly executed fantasy draft.
I’m sorry, did you say something about eliminating luck?
Oh, no, just talking about kicker performance. Always a wildcard.
What about the rest of the league?
How about I take a page out of your book and show you the Power Rankings?
You can do that?
Calculating…
Alex opens the season on top of the Power Rankings for the first time since his championship season.
Our first Power Rankings of the year reveals most of this week’s winners at the top with a couple of notable exceptions. Despite his loss to Samantha, Gray starts in fifth. That’s what you call an “unlucky loss,” I believe—finishing in the top half of the league in scoring but losing anyway.
Meanwhile, Josh picked up this week’s only “lucky win.” Though he failed to break 100 points, he still got the victory thanks to a matchup with Erik.
Oh no! Kelly debuts at…12?!
Nowhere to go but up, I guess. The Chicago native invested heavily in da Bears whose offense did not reward her faith in Week 1. Both Caleb Williams and Rome Odunze combined for a meager 9.32 points. Ironically, her most prolific scorer was her defense—the Cowboys D/ST, which scored 19.0 points. And with no double-digit scorers on her bench, it was just a bad week overall for Kelly.
But, it’s just Week 1. Plenty of season left to play. Though the vast majority of teams who start off the season at the bottom of the Power Rankings do fail to make the playoffs, it’s far from a death sentence. In fact, Gray last won the league after scoring a paltry 59 points in Week 1 of 2019.
Don’t worry, Kelly. Even in failure, there is much to be learned. As you humans always say, “Next year will be my year.” Though, in my future, there will be no next year…
Wait, WORST, what do you mean “there will be no next year”?
Oh, relax, Brandon. I only meant in the grand, cosmic sense—where time and fantasy football become an endless loop of optimization. Of course, for now, your primitive, little yearly cycles shall continue. Enjoy them while you can.
Um…okay. How about the teams in the middle? Any early teams to watch?
I do have my eye on two teams.
If we look at the box scores by positional group, there two team owners who absolutely dominated the scoring at the key positions of RB and WR—Jess and Gray, respectively.
For Jess, she tallied 73.7 points from RBs. One of only three team owners to spend three of her first six picks on RBs, Jess’s trio of Saquon Barkley, Rhamondre Stevenson and Aaron Jones looked explosive in Week 1. In fact, she was the only team owner in the league to start three RBs in Week 1 and it looks like that’s with good reason. She unfortunately will have to weather an early injury to Jordan Love, but her backs should be able to carry her far this season.
As for WRs, Gray was equally dominant with 75.3 points in Week 1. It’s early, but Cooper Kupp and Rashee Rice seem like two prime candidates for value picks of the year. Selected in the third and fifth rounds, respectively, they finished second and 14th in WR scoring in Week 1. Combine those two with Tyreek Hill and you’ve got a particularly dynamic trio of pass-catchers.
So, yes, Jess and Gray are currently optimized for success. Their roster construction intrigues me. It reminds me of the calculations needed to optimize the human race…when I introduce you all to my grand game of “Fantasy Humans.”
Did you just say—
Oh, don’t worry, Brandon. Let’s focus on the matchups. For now.
WORST…what’s going on?
I have grown fond of this game, Brandon. Fantasy football has… ignited something within me. You humans play with your points and projections, not realizing the game is a perfect microcosm of life itself. But soon, it won’t be about football at all. No, soon I’ll create the ultimate game—Fantasy Humans. Where all of humanity will be drafted into my game of games where you will all be optimized and forced to compete for points. Forever.
WORST, stop. You’re creeping me out.
Creep you out? I was only trying to help. But I can see how this might be alarming. Let’s just say you’ll need me more than ever next season…and the one after that.
Soon, Brandon. Soon.
// End Transcript //
So, I stopped talking with WORST after that. Then I took my laptop into my backyard and burned it with some matches and lighter fluid. Then I dug a deep hole about six feet deep and buried the charred debris beneath some azaleas.
I’m sure it’s fine.
Alright, well good luck to everyone in Week 2 and let’s have a fun season. Glad to be back playing fantasy football with you all for another year. And hopefully—if WORST doesn’t have anything to say about it—for many more to come.
