Week 13 Power Rankings
It all comes down to this…
The Scoreboard
Josh led all scorers with 156.82 points, his first weekly prize of the season.
In Week 13, Kyler Murray returned to Josh’s lineup and, as a result, he finally had a breakout game, scoring 156.82 points and winning his first weekly prize of the season. That makes Josh the ninth team owner to win a weekly prize this season, which is the most in league history, breaking the previous high of seven from 2017. Only Alex, Jess and Whitney have not won a weekly prize this season.
With one week to go, everyone’s eyes are on the playoffs. Congratulations this week are in order for Gray and Beth Ann who joined Geoff in clinching spots in the playoffs. Unfortunately, Brandon and Erik were eliminated. They now join Greco as the only three team owners eliminated. And Whitney, while not technically eliminated, is an extreme long shot who did not see her ideal scenario play out. (More on the fate of Simulation No. 8,191 below.)
That leaves realistically five team owners gunning for three spots—Samantha, Alex, Josh, Nick and Jess. Don’t worry, we’ll get into all the details in their blurbs below.
Power Rankings
For this week’s Power Rankings, we’re breaking down what every team owner has at stake, including what each needs to do to clinch a first-round bye or a playoff spot. And in the case of those already eliminated, we discuss what they need to do to avoid a bottom-two seed, which makes it more likely that a team owner ends up in the Poop Bowl. Plus, we’ve included a simple list at the end of each blurb that spells it out in TL;DR form. Consider this your cheat sheet for game day.
Okay, let’s get to it as we do every week, starting with first and ending with the worst.
Beth Ann is so far ahead, she’s assured herself the top spot for next week too.
1. Beth Ann
8-5, .699 TW%, 129.7 ppg
Beth Ann not only clinched a playoff spot this week, she clinched the top spot in the final Power Rankings. And there’s still one week to go. Her win over Nick was especially impressive considering she spotted him an extra player (“oops!” on starting Alvin Kamara) and still won by 50+ points. It helps when you have three players finish in the top 10 in scoring, including two (Justin Jefferson and Diontae Johnson) in the top four.
Even without Kamara these last four weeks, Beth Ann has surged into the lead and not only ranks first in TW% but first in scoring as well with a 54.64-point lead over Nick. With 100 true wins, she becomes just the seventh team owner to accomplish that feat joining Gray (twice), Alex (twice), Greco and Josh, the latter of whom did it most recently in 2019. That makes this the most successful season of her career with the chance of finishing with a top-five team in league history.
But with zero career playoff wins, Beth Ann’s eyes are on something bigger, and a first-round bye should help. The computer gives her an 83% chance of a top-two seed. She needs to beat Brandon or, given her substantial points lead, simply root for Gray to lose to Whitney.
Beth Ann clinches a first-round bye with:
Beth Ann win OR
Gray loss
2. Nick
6-7, .601 TW%, 125.5 ppg
After a dominant season that includes two weekly prizes, four games of 140+ points, nine weeks atop the Power Rankings, myriad trades and the best (and most infamous) season of his career, Nick will make or miss the playoffs based on the result of this week’s game. After a critical Week 13 loss to Beth Ann in which Rashod Bateman, Christian Kirk and Foster Moreau combined for just 5.8 points, Nick now needs to win, or he will go home.
Though Nick has lost four of his last five games and has not had a top-five score since Week 8, there is some reason for optimism. Notably, Dalvin Cook surprisingly returned to action after just one game missed due to a shoulder injury and promptly scored a season-high 35.2 points. That not only helps Nick but hurts the Alexander Mattison owner, who happens to be his opponent this week—Samantha. That being said, D’Andre Swift and Darren Waller are both still injured and questionable to return. And now Tony Pollard has torn his plantar fascia and is currently a game-time decision.
But to make the playoffs, Nick must win to get to seven wins. If he does, the points would be in his favor over other potential seven-win team owners including Jess (though she could catch him and push him down a seed line), Samantha, Whitney and the loser of the Alex vs. Josh game. Considering his standing within the Power Rankings, the computer gives him a 58% chance to make it, which is not-so-different from his ESPN projection right now.
Nick clinches a playoff spot with:
Nick win
3. Jess (▲1)
6-7, .559 TW%, 121.6 ppg
Despite two straight losses down the stretch, Jess remains red hot. This week, she nearly matched her season-high with 150.1 points, all while playing without Deebo Samuel. That makes it five straight weeks with scores in the top half of the league, including top-three scores in four of her last five. In fact, she has the best team in the league since Week 9, ranking first in TW% (.818) and scoring (128.3 ppg) and has risen from 10th in these rankings to her peak now at third.
Unfortunately, the only other team owner this week with more points than Jess was her opponent—Josh. As a result, her 150.1 points are the most in a loss this season by a mile and the second-most all time trailing only Whitney’s Week 7 loss to Josh last season despite 166.66 points scored. (Coincidentally, four of the five highest-scoring efforts in a loss have come at the hands of Josh. The guy knows how to rain on a parade.)
But all that matters now is what’s ahead. And though Jess is not currently projected to make the playoffs, the computer gives her a healthy 53% chance to make it in. Technically, that’s the worst odds of any of the non-eliminated teams except for Whitney.
Samantha, Alex, Nick, Josh and Jess will compete for the final three spots.
So what is Jess’s path to the playoffs?
After next week, we know there will be at least four teams with eight or more wins: Geoff, Beth Ann, Gray and the winner of Alex vs. Josh. That leaves two playoff spots for seven-win teams (or just one if Samantha beats Nick). Potential seven-win teams could include Samantha, Nick, the loser of Alex vs. Josh, Whitney and finally Jess. And at that point, the tiebreaker would come into play.
So with that in mind, here’s where all those teams stand currently in points:
Nick: 1631.38
Jess: 1581.00 (-50.38)
Samantha: 1566.68 (-14.32)
Alex: 1496.82 (-69.86)
Josh: 1447.14 (-49.68)
Whitney: 1327.26 (-119.88)
As you can see, Jess is in pretty good shape. She only trails Nick. But if he gets to seven wins, that means he’s beaten Samantha, which would open up two playoff spots for seven-win teams. So those would go to Nick and Jess in that scenario. If he loses, well, then he only has six wins and Jess would have the most points of the seven-win teams. Either way, it’s good for her.
In other words, if Jess can beat Geoff to get to seven wins, she’s in. 100%.
BUT… that assumes she maintains her slim points lead over Samantha, which is just 14.32 points. If Samantha loses to Nick but outscores Jess by 14.32 points, Samantha would get the final playoff spot even if Jess wins.
As for her Week 14 matchup, it’ll be tough sledding as Jess faces off against Geoff. And while it appears Deebo Samuel will be back, Keenan Allen tested positive for COVID-19 this week and will miss the game. With no Allen and no Jonathan Taylor (on bye in Week 14), there could be some unfamiliar faces in Jess’ lineup in a must-win game. This one’s gonna be close.
Jess clinches a playoff spot with:
Jess win AND
Samantha does not outscore Jess by 14.32 points.
T4. Samantha
7-6, .531 TW%, 120.5 ppg
Samantha came really close to clinching a playoff spot in Week 13, losing by just 4.52 points to Whitney. In fact, had she started the Cowboys D/ST as it looks like she intended (picking them up but then forgetting to put them in her lineup for their Thursday night game), she would have won by less than a point.
Unfortunately, despite finishing in the top half of the league in scoring in Week 13, Samantha lost thanks to an uncharacteristically good game from Whitney. In fact, it was Whitney’s most points scored since Week 3. It was also the second time this season that Whitney has defeated Samantha in a nail-biter, beating her previously by just 1.48 points in Week 2. That means Samantha has lost two games to Whitney by a combined six points. That’s unlucky.
As a result, her playoff chances dropped significantly to 69%. She’s still the favorite of the teams who have not yet clinched, but as we mentioned above, she’s really up against it this week thanks to 35.2 points from Dalvin Cook for Nick on Thursday night. In an alternate universe Cook sits and those points go to her player, Alexander Mattison. Worse, Myles Gaskin is on bye, Calvin Ridley is still out and T.J. Hockenson (TE3 on the season with double-digit scores in six of his last seven) appears doubtful with a hand injury that cropped up during practice this week.
(Random side note: Samantha has gotten the worst of the controversial Nick/Whitney deal, having to face Damien Harris and DeAndre Hopkins in Week 13 and then Dalvin Cook in Week 14. If the trade doesn’t happen, she likely beats Whitney because Cook is injured. And then this week, she faces Nick with no Cook and Harris on bye.)
But if there is good news for Samantha, it’s that she has more than one route to the playoffs. Win and she’s in, yes. But the Wall of Destiny shows that she still has a 45.7% chance of making the playoffs even if she loses this week to Nick.
Assuming tiebreakers stay the same, Samantha, Josh, Alex, Nick and Jess all control their own destiny.
That’s because even with a loss, she would still have seven wins, at which point she would enter into the tiebreaker for two final playoff spots with the other seven-win teams. The first would go to Nick who would have the most points scored. But the second could go to Samantha. She likely would have more points scored than the loser of the Alex vs. Josh game (unless Alex, in a loss, is able to outscore Samantha by 69.86 points; Josh is too far back) and Whitney. That really just leaves Jess as her main competition. But as we mentioned in Jess’ blurb, Jess still has to beat Geoff to get to seven wins, and even then, she has to maintain her slim 14.32-point lead over Samantha.
So if you’re Samantha, you’re hoping you can make a comeback against Nick. But if not, you’re rooting for Geoff to beat Jess. And if that fails, she just needs to outscore Jess by 14.32 points, which would also secure her spot. It’s not ideal, but she does have three outs.
Samantha clinches a playoff spot with:
Samantha win OR
Jess loss OR
Samantha outscores Jess by 14.32 points.
T4. Geoff (▼1)
9-4, .531 TW%, 117.4 ppg
I guess Geoff is just saving up his energy for the playoffs. Coming off his lowest-scoring game of the season, Geoff put up another clunker, totaling just 86.62 points in a loss to Gray thanks in part to 5.2 combined points from Tyreek Hill and Adam Thielen. That makes it back-to-back down games, which pushes his TW% down to .531, a mark that’s more indicative of a 7-6 team than a 9-4 team.
But you are what your record says you are. And Geoff is a nine-win team with his eyes on the one seed in the playoffs. Last week, this is what I wrote about his chances of securing one of those first-round byes:
With a two-game lead on Beth Ann, Samantha and Gray with two games to go, he has a 98% chance of getting one of those two byes. If he wins one more game, he gets it. And even if he loses out, the only way he would lose the bye is if both Beth Ann and Samantha won out. Ditto for Gray, but he’d have to pass Geoff in points to steal his spot.
That last line is especially prescient now. Samantha did not win last week. But Beth Ann and Gray did. And if they’re both able to win again in games against Brandon and Whitney, respectively—and those are not tough opponents—then Geoff runs the risk of losing his first-round bye if he fails to beat Jess.
In that scenario, Geoff, Beth Ann and Gray would all be tied with nine wins. At that point, the byes would go to Beth Ann (who has a significant points lead of 150+ points over both guys) and Geoff. But that’s assuming Geoff can maintain his slim points lead, which is down to just 18.08 points over Gray. Given the fact that Geoff will be without Adam Thielen (high-ankle sprain) plus Miles Sanders and Devonta Smith (both on bye), it’s entirely possible Geoff could lose his first-round bye if he lays another egg in Week 14.
Geoff’s team better wake up now or they’ll be in for a rude awakening, having to play in the first round of the playoffs. Remember, that’s what happened to Gray last season who was upset in the first round by Greco last year.
Geoff clinches a first-round bye with:
Geoff win OR
Beth Ann loss OR
Gray loss OR
Gray does not outscore Geoff by 18.08 points.
6. Alex (▲1)
7-6, .517 TW%, 115.1 ppg
The comeback is almost complete. After starting 2-5, Alex has won five of his last six games and is now at the precipice of the playoffs after ending Erik’s season in a demolition of nearly 70 points. In fact, Alex’s 141.34 points were a season high, and his players were firing on all cylinders. And that was without Nick Chubb (on bye). The truth is when Chris Godwin (season-high 30.2 points) and Tyler Lockett (19.8) are both on, this team is hard to beat. Case in point, he set the record for most receptions in the PPR era with 44. The previous high was 41 set by Josh in Week 7 of last year.
Now it all comes down to a Week 14 showdown against Josh. Both team owners are 7-6 despite ranking in the bottom half of the league in scoring. Winner goes to the playoffs. Loser goes…not necessarily home. You might be surprised to find out from the Wall of Destiny that Alex can still make the playoffs even if he loses. Interestingly, it’s not because of the points (Alex trails Samantha, Jess and Nick in scoring by at least 69.86 points), but rather the wins.
So how does that work? Even if he loses, Alex would still have seven wins. His best chance then would be to avoid the tiebreaker. So he would need Samantha to beat Nick and Geoff to beat Jess. In that case, he (and possibly Whitney) would be the only seven-win teams. With one playoff spot remaining, Alex would get it. (Whitney trails Alex in scoring by 169.56 points.) The computer gives him a not insignificant 19.7% chance of that happening in the event of a loss. As a result, the computer likes Alex’s chances overall, giving him a 63% chance to make the playoffs, better than Nick, Josh, Jess or Whitney.
In Week 14, after a season spent dealing with injury, Alex has one of the healthier rosters in the league and should be at full strength. The only hiccup may be at QB where Jalen Hurts is on bye. But Russell Wilson, picked up in free agency last week after he was dropped by Nick, certainly has a high ceiling. If Alex can close this one out, we might be talking about the most epic comeback to make the playoffs in league history.
Alex clinches a playoff spot with:
Alex win OR
Nick loss + Jess loss
7. Gray (▼1)
8-5, .497 TW%, 116.0 ppg
Gray clinched his spot in the playoffs last week with a win over Geoff. And yet with 104.66 points scored, he finished in the bottom half of the league in scoring for the fourth time in the last five weeks. Now, he’s dropped all the way down to seventh in the Power Rankings, which is tied for his lowest ranking this season. And now Elijah Moore, one of his breakout WRs, has been placed on IR with a quadriceps injury and is likely done for the fantasy season.
But on the bright side, Gray is playoff bound. And with a matchup against Whitney this week, who will be without Damien Harris (on bye), he has a good chance of reaching nine wins for the third straight year. And this time, he may still have a shot at a first-round bye. Because he trails Geoff in wins and both Geoff and Beth Ann in points, Gray will need a little help. But it’s possible. The computer gives him a 17% chance.
And that’s important. Because last year, Gray lost his first-round bye and was knocked out of the playoffs by Greco in the first round. So you can bet he’ll be gunning for that win.
Gray clinches a first-round bye with:
Gray win + Beth Ann loss OR
Gray win + Beth Ann win + Geoff loss + Gray outscores Geoff by 18.08 points
8. Josh (▲2)
7-6, .483 TW%, 111.3 ppg
Two weeks ago, this is what we wrote about Josh:
The good news? He’s still 5-6. And though he trails pretty much everybody except Whitney and Greco in points, he’s still in this thing with more wins than Erik or Brandon and just as many as Nick. With three more wins, he could get to 8-6 and then maybe the points tiebreaker won’t matter. The Wall of Destiny gives him a 95.2% chance of making the playoffs if he wins out. But he’ll have to beat Geoff, Jess and Alex to do it. Hurry back Kyler Murray and Aaron Jones!
Two down. One to go. And this writeup turned out to be 100% accurate. After defeating Geoff in Week 12, Josh took down Jess by scoring a season-high 156.82 points. That total helped him to his first weekly prize of the season and the first since Week 7 of 2020. Key was the play of Kyler Murray in his return (his first 30-point game since Week 2), plus 20-point games for Antonio Gibson, Tee Higgins, Rob Gronkowski and—yes—Devonta Freeman. Looks like Josh is finally healthy and looking dangerous.
That sets up a juicy matchup this week with Alex. And basically everything we wrote about Alex in his blurb applies to Josh here. With a win, he’s in. And even with a loss, he can still make it in if both Nick and Jess also lose.
As for the matchup with Alex, this one is truly a toss-up. By TW%, Alex is considered the favorite. He’s the higher-ranked team in the Power Rankings. And the computer gives him a 52% chance of winning. But based on the ESPN projections, which take into account the actual players and matchups involved, Josh is the favorite with—ironically enough—a 52% chance of winning. So it truly could go either way.
But what I love most about this matchup is that both teams are finally fully healthy. And it’ll be strength against strength.
Kyler Murray vs. Russell Wilson
Aaron Jones, Antonio Gibson vs. Saquon Barkley, Nick Chubb, Leonard Fournette
Mike Evans, Darnell Mooney, Tee Higgins vs. Chris Godwin, Tyler Lockett
Rob Gronkoski vs. Dalton Schultz
Terrific matchups all around. Get out the popcorn. 🍿
Josh clinches a playoff spot with:
Josh win OR
Nick loss + Jess loss
9. Brandon (▼1)
5-8, .469 TW%, 115.4 ppg
Brandon was mercifully eliminated by Greco this week, ending a five-year playoff streak dating back to 2016, thus putting to an end the so-called Brandynasty that saw him win three of the last four championships.
Though Stefon Diggs dropped what would have been an 11.4-point TD pass, which would have been the difference in the game, let’s be realistic. This team was simply not good enough this season. Too many bad draft picks. Too many injuries. The fact that Brandon ranks ninth in TW% and seventh in points is a testament to the limits of what can be accomplished through the waiver wire. So far, Brandon has led all team owners with 522.22 points from free agency, which is 35% of his total output compared to the league average of just 15%. Only Geoff last year has ever gotten more points from free agents, and he also went 5-8.
Now all that lies ahead for Brandon is the consolation ladder and a potential date with the Poop Bowl. As I mentioned last week, it’s important to avoid a bottom-two seed if you want to avoid the Poop Bowl. Right now, Brandon is the 10 seed. Given his points lead over Greco, he should be able to avoid the 12 seed. But the 11 seed will come down to him, Erik or Whitney. Because Brandon has a slim points lead over Erik, he needs to either beat Beth Ann or hope for Erik to lose to Greco.
Brandon avoids a bottom-two seed in the consolation ladder with:
Brandon win + Whitney loss OR
Brandon win + Erik loss OR
Brandon win + Erik win + Erik does not outscore Brandon by 21.68 points OR
Brandon loss + Erik loss + Erik does not outscore Brandon by 21.68 points.
10. Erik (▼2)
5-8, .448 TW%, 113.7 ppg
Joe Mixon can only do so much. This week, he had his first single-digit score since Week 2. And as we know, when Mixon scores under 15 points, Erik typically loses. That has now happened in seven out of Erik’s eight losses this season. With this week’s loss to Alex, Erik is now officially eliminated from the playoffs and drops to his lowest position within the Power Rankings this season.
We’ll have more on Erik and his season next week when we write up our final Power Rankings of the season. But for now, we’ll just say that, like Brandon, Erik’s attention turns to the consolation ladder, where he will hope to avoid joining Greco as a bottom-two seed. Luckily, Erik has a much easier matchup, facing the league’s last-place team in the Power Rankings (Greco) as opposed to Brandon who must face the league’s toughest (Beth Ann).
Erik avoids a bottom-two seed in the consolation ladder with:
Erik win + Whitney loss OR
Erik win + Brandon loss OR
Erik win + Brandon win + Erik outscores Brandon by 21.68 points OR
Erik loss + Brandon loss + Erik outscores Brandon by 21.68 points.
11. Whitney
6-7, .371 TW%, 102.1 ppg
Whitney narrowly avoided elimination, picking up her second win in the last three weeks. And of course, both Damien Harris (17.1 points) and DeAndre Hopkins (11.2) played prominent roles. If you replace those two with an injured Dalvin Cook, she probably doesn’t win this week’s game against Samantha.
Of course, the real hero of Whitney’s game this week was George Kittle who exploded for 39.6 points, a season-high. And interestingly, had Whitney started both Kittle and Goedert—something she did each of the last three weeks—she could have scored a season-high 155.22 points, which would have been just short of this week’s weekly prize.
Despite the win, Whitney’s playoff chances are extremely remote. Remember, last week we talked about Simulation No. 8,191. Well, that almost came to pass. Whitney won. Nick and Jess lost. But because Alex won to get to seven wins, it’s just really hard to find a path to the playoffs for Whitney.
Her only hope is to beat Gray this week, root for Nick and Jess to lose so they fall short of seven wins, and then put up a massive amount of points to be able to catch the loser of the Alex vs. Josh game. But how many points? Josh would be easier to catch, but she needs to outscore him by 119.88 points. Realistically, that’s just not going to happen, and this time, my computer could not find a simulation for it in 10,000 tries.
So really, her main goal this week should be beating Gray. If she can do that, she’ll avoid a bottom-two seed in the consolation ladder. Meanwhile if she loses (and she’s currently an underdog in this week’s matchup), her points deficit would cause her to slip to the bottom two if either Erik or Brandon can win.
Whitney clinches a playoff spot with:
Whitney win AND
Nick loss + Jess loss AND
Josh loss + Whitney outscores Josh by 119.88 points OR
Alex loss + Whitney outscores Alex by 169.56 points.
12. Greco
4-9, .308 TW%, 105.5 ppg
Greco played spoiler to Brandon this week, ending what had been a five-game losing streak dating back to Week 8. As predicted, she got a breakout game from Javonte Williams, playing without backfield teammate Melvin Gordon for the first time this season, who scored a season-high 29.8 points—the most by any RB in Week 13.
Since she’s already been eliminated from the playoffs, the only thing Greco has to play for this week is the weekly prize money, the chance to drag Erik down with her into the bottom two of the consolation ladder and finally, pride. Greco is nine true wins back of Whitney with one more game to go. If she has a big week and Whitney does not, it’s still possible she could avoid finishing the regular season as the 12th-place team in the Power Rankings. In 10 seasons, Greco has only finished last in the final rankings once, which was 2019. Currently, only Nick (2017, 2020), Trevor (2015, 2016) and Terryn (2013, 2014) have the dishonor of finishing in last place more than once.
Looking Ahead to Week 14
Well, this is a monumental week. I’m eliminated, but I’m still so excited to find out how it plays out in the conclusion to our first-ever 14-week regular season. If you’ve made it this far, you’ve already read about all the scenarios, but to put it simply, this week comes down to a few questions:
Can Samantha hold off Nick to keep him out of the playoffs?
Can Jess topple Geoff to save her season?
And who will win in the battle of Alex vs. Josh?
Five teams enter. Three teams leave.
