Week 2: Admiring the Fantasy Foliage
Tuesday marked the first day of fall.
Of course, as fantasy football players, we know fall is really here when our starters start dropping like the autumnal leaves.
So throw on a flannel, grab something pumpkin-spiced and enjoy some of Week 2’s most traditional fall activities.
Me after burning my tongue on a pumpkin spice latte, and now I can’t taste anything.
Watch the leaves fall in Chicago.
Or Caleb Williams. Same basic idea. Williams went down after pulling his hamstring on a fourth-quarter scramble and was eventually carted off — but not before giving the crowd a thumbs up. Beautiful foliage. Definitely worth a 👍. Unless you’re Jess.
Try your hand at pumpkin carving.
Jayden Daniels may want to sit this one out. He dislocated his left elbow on the final play of the first half — the same injury that cost him three weeks last season. Hard to carve a jack-o’-lantern when your carving arm is once again pointing toward injured reserve. Sorry, Geoff.
Kick through a pile of leaves.
Just maybe not with Alec Pierce’s foot. Pierce injured his heel late in the first quarter and finished with 2.1 points. One crunchy step and his (and Jess’s) afternoon was over.
Go apple picking. Watch out for stingers.
Saquon Barkley got one on his very first carry. He returned briefly, then was shut down after scoring 3.0 points for Kelly’s team. Apparently the bees are still active this time of year.
And take a Monday-night stroll through the park.
Just don’t expect Jaxson Dart to finish it with you. He was injured in the first quarter and gave Brandon 0.8 points in a game Brandon lost by 8.66.
Ah, fall.
Cooler temperatures. Changing colors. Pumpkin spice.
And the annual realization that your fantasy season can go from pumpkin to rotten jack-o’-lantern faster than you can say “trick or treat.”
Two Games Is Nothing. Except When It Isn’t.
Of course, injuries aren’t the only thing that can make a fantasy season go sideways in a hurry. Sometimes all it takes is two losses.
Two weeks into a fantasy season, everyone repeats the same comforting line:
It’s early.
Technically, yes.
Historically?
Maybe stop saying it quite so confidently.
The First Two Weeks
What a 2-0, 1-1 or 0-2 start has actually been worth, 2011–2025
Over the first 15 completed seasons of the Worst League, 41 teams have started 2–0. 29 made the playoffs.
That’s 71%.
Another 41 teams started 0–2.
Six made the playoffs.
That’s 15%.
So, sure. Start 2–0 and you’re probably in good shape. Start 0–2 and you’ve got a problem.
But here’s the weird part:
From Week 3 on, those teams have basically played the same.
Teams that started 2–0 went 230–231–6 the rest of the way, good for a .499 winning percentage.
Teams that started 1–1 played .512 football.
Teams that started 0–2 played .473 football.
In other words, the first two weeks don’t really tell us how good you’re going to be for the rest of the season. They mostly tell us how many wins you already have.
A 2–0 team isn’t necessarily a better team. It’s a team that gets to start Week 3 with two wins in the bank.
An 0–2 team has to spend the next twelve weeks trying to earn them back.
And that head start matters.
Only three of the 41 teams that started 2–0 eventually finished dead last. Whitney somehow did it in back-to-back seasons. Yet despite that 71% playoff rate, no 2–0 team has won the Worst League title since Alex in 2015.
On the other side, two teams have gone from 0–2 all the way to champion:
Beth Ann in 2021. Samantha in 2022.
And Samantha is basically the patron saint of terrible starts. She has started 0–2 four times. She made the playoffs all four times.
So if you’re Geoff, Erik or Beth Ann, history says you should absolutely panic.
Unless you are Samantha.
Which you are not.
The Power Rankings
So three teams already have historical permission to panic.
But panic is not the same thing as being bad.
For that, we turn to True Win Percentage: how often each team would have won if it had played everybody in the league each week.
Power Rankings
By True Win Percentage, through Week 1
| Counting the wins nobody played for… |
Two weeks in, the standings and the rankings are already starting to disagree.
Violently.
1. Josh — 2-0 | 279.44 pts | .818 TW%
There really isn’t an argument here. Josh has the most points in the league, the most True Wins, the best True Win Percentage and the highest score from Week 2.
And this isn’t just a nice start. Josh’s 18 True Wins rank 15th among all 192 owner-seasons in league history through two weeks. His 279.44 points are actually only the second-best opening of his career — he scored 302.3 in 2020 — but Week 2 showed why this team is different. Justin Herbert scored 7.9. Ashton Jeanty dropped from 32.7 to 10.3. Josh still put up 146.68 because Davante Adams scored 39.5, Chris Olave added 22.6 and there were points basically everywhere else.
Now comes the uncomfortable part.
Josh has played 13 seasons and owns a 93–69 regular-season record.
He has never won the league.
This is his fifth 2–0 start, and as we just established, no 2–0 team has won the championship since 2015.
So yes, this could finally be the year.
History would just like to see some ID first.
2. Gray — 1-1 | 259.84 pts | .682 TW%
Gray lost by 20.5 points and somehow moved up in the Power Rankings.
Welcome to True Wins.
He still owns the second-best TW% in the league, the third-most points and Amon-Ra St. Brown, whose 63.9 points are the third-best two-week start by a receiver in league history.
Now, about those two tight ends.
The strategy has been tried 26 times since the rule change in 2021, with a 12–14 record. But that number comes with one enormous asterisk: Chelsie is 6–1. Everyone else is 6–13.
The actual scoring difference is much less dramatic. A tight end used in the FLEX has averaged 6.66 points, compared with 7.37 from a running back or receiver. So it’s not fantasy malpractice. It’s just, on average, a slightly worse use of the spot.
Gray’s version produced 11.8 combined points from Isaiah Likely and Tucker Kraft. Not great, but hardly why he lost — his six RB/WR/TE starters still scored nearly 11 points above the league average.
And Chelsie’s 6–1 record deserves some context. Much of it came during Brock Bowers’ rookie year, when her double-TE “strategy” was essentially Bowers plus George Kittle.
Take away the woman who happened to own two elite tight ends, and the case for starting two gets a lot less compelling.
3. Brandon — 1-1 | 265.50 pts | .591 TW%
Brandon entered Monday night needing roughly ten points.
Jaxson Dart gave him 0.8 before leaving in the first quarter.
That’ll do it.
The 8.66-point loss dropped Brandon from first to third in the Power Rankings, but underneath that loss is the clearest strength of any roster in the league right now:
The running backs are doing basically everything.
Through two weeks, Brandon’s backs have scored 122.70 points, nearly 23 more than Josh’s second-place group. It’s the best two-week start by a backfield in the PPR era and the fourth-largest lead over the league’s No. 2 backfield in any season.
Kenneth Walker, James Cook and Breece Hall all topped 14 points in Week 2, continuing a start in which running backs have accounted for 46.2% of Brandon’s total scoring — the highest share in the league.
Where the Points Come From
Points per game by position, 2026
The rest of the roster is considerably less balanced. Brandon ranks 1st at RB and kicker, 4th at TE, 9th at WR and 11th at QB.
So far, that imbalance has worked. Brandon still has the second-most points in the league and sits third in True Win Percentage.
And historically, a great early backfield is a pretty useful thing to have: 10 of the previous 15 teams to lead the league in RB scoring through two weeks made the playoffs. Six finished first or second.
Apparently the secret to fantasy football is running the ball.
3. Geoff — 0-2 | 243.60 pts | .591 TW%
This is why we have Power Rankings.
Geoff is 0–2 and tied for third.
His 243.60 points are the fifth-most ever scored by an 0–2 team through two weeks, and his 13 True Wins say he would be comfortably above .500 if fantasy football let everyone play everybody.
Unfortunately, ESPN continues to insist on matchups.
The concern is also pretty obvious when you look at where the points are coming from. Geoff’s receivers average 52.0 points per game, fourth-best in the league. His running backs average 27.1, 10th.
Week 2 was the perfect demonstration. Javonte Williams and Travis Etienne combined for 15.1 points — roughly what one average starting running back has produced this year. CeeDee Lamb responded with 35.3. Travis Kelce added 25.1.
Geoff still lost.
The standings say this is an 0–2 team.
Everything underneath them says otherwise.
3. Chelsie — 1-1 | 240.78 pts | .591 TW%
Jaxon Smith-Njigba scored 42.5 points this week.
Through two games, he has 68.7.
That is not the best start by a receiver in league history. I checked.
It is merely the second-best.
Stefon Diggs opened 2022 with 71.0. JSN’s 68.7 is also the third-best two-week start by any player at any position in league history.
Which is useful, because parts of Chelsie’s roster currently look like they are being operated under emergency power. Colston Loveland scored 1.3. The Chiefs defense scored 1.0. Her three running backs combined for 29.0.
No problem. Thanks to JSN and Brock Purdy (28.5), Chelsie jumped five places and is now tied for third.
And for anyone thinking 1–1 sounds a little underwhelming for the defending champion, she started 1–1 last season too.
Somewhere, ominous music has begun playing.
6. Samantha — 1-1 | 221.90 pts | .545 TW%
Samantha has apparently decided the draft was merely a suggestion.
She leads the league in scoring from free-agent acquisitions with 31.4 points through two weeks. The next closest owner has 15.
Her Week 2 additions included Dontayvion Wicks, who scored 12.4, and the Patriots defense, which scored 20. Add Matthew Stafford’s 27.0, Ja’Marr Chase’s 26.5 and Trey McBride’s 18.1, and the team that ranked 10th after Week 1 suddenly scored 132.38, second-most in the league, and jumped four spots.
And then there’s the history we literally just discussed.
Samantha has started 0–2 six times.
She made the playoffs in four of them.
She owns four of the six 0–2 playoff recoveries in league history and won the championship after one of them in 2022.
She didn’t even bother going 0–2 this season.
Apparently she’s ahead of schedule.
7. Erik — 0-2 | 253.08 pts | .500 TW%
Josh Allen is having the best two-week start by any player at any position in Worst League history.
He scored 35.7 in Week 1.
Then 40.8 in Week 2.
Erik lost both games.
No owner in 15 years has ever lost back-to-back while getting 30-plus points from their quarterback both weeks. And somehow, that isn’t even the best illustration of Erik’s bad luck.
His 253.08 points are the second-most ever scored by a team that started 0–2, trailing only Brandon’s 256.56 in 2022.
Week 2 was especially cruel. Allen scored 40.8, and Erik still lost to Kelly by 0.94 points, thanks in part to Malik Nabers scoring 1.1 and David Montgomery dropping from 28.9 points in Week 1 to 4.4.
Erik isn’t playing like an 0–2 team.
He’s just getting the full 0–2 experience.
7. Greco — 2-0 | 241.78 pts | .500 TW%
Greco is 2-0. She has not played like a 2-0 team.
Her .500 True Win Percentage means that if she had played every team each week, she’d be exactly 11–11. The typical 2-0 start in this league has produced a .727 TW%.
Greco hasn’t even had one particularly good week. She finished 6th in scoring in Week 1 and 7th in Week 2. She has yet to crack the top five.
So how is she undefeated? An extremely cooperative schedule. Her opponents finished dead last in scoring in Week 1 and 10th in Week 2.
She isn’t winning because she’s terrible.
She’s winning because nobody has made her be good yet.
9. Jess — 1-1 | 248.48 pts | .455 TW%
Last week Jess ranked second.
This week she ranks ninth.
That seven-place fall is the biggest single-week drop of the season, and the scoring collapse was just as violent: 160.26 points in Week 1 became 88.22 in Week 2, a decline of 72.04.
Caleb Williams accounted for a huge chunk of it, going from 37.2 to 7.7 — the biggest drop by any individual starter in the league. Alec Pierce added 2.1 before leaving early, and Jess’s two Chicago starters combined for just 20.6.
Turns out rooting for the Bears is not for the faint of heart.
9. Alex — 2-0 | 202.96 pts | .455 TW%
Alex is 2-0, although his 202.96 points are third-lowest in the league and easily the fewest of the three undefeated teams.
The encouraging part is that Week 2 finally showed signs of life.
DeVonta Smith jumped from 8.3 to 27.7. Jaylen Waddle went from 1.2 to 21.8. Together, they improved by exactly 40 points from Week 1.
Unfortunately, Trevor Lawrence went the other direction, falling from 26.1 to 6.2, the second-worst quarterback score of Week 2. And Brock Bowers remains out, leaving Alex to piece together the tight end position in the meantime.
That’s basically been the story through two weeks: every time one part of the roster wakes up, another goes back to sleep. Only Christian McCaffrey has topped 12 points in both weeks.
Still, there’s something here. His Week 2 score improved from 90.90 to 112.06, good for fifth in the league that week. If Alex can ever get everyone on the same page, this team might actually start looking like its record.
11. Kelly — 1-1 | 200.26 pts | .227 TW%
Kelly won.
Best not to dwell on the details.
Okay, if you must know… her 110.86 beat Erik’s 109.92 by 0.94 points.
Harrison Mevis, Kelly’s kicker, scored 3.0.
Malik Nabers, Erik’s receiver, scored 1.1.
So yes, in a matchup decided by less than a point, the winning team’s kicker outscored a starting receiver on the losing team in a primetime Monday Night Football matchup. That is an actual thing that happened.
Kelly has just five True Wins out of 22, second-worst in the league, and ranks 11th in scoring. She was 11th last week. She remains 11th now.
But she is 1–1.
It still counts.
12. Beth Ann — 0-2 | 181.86 pts | .045 TW%
This is bad.
Not because Beth Ann’s 94.40 in Week 2 was historically awful. It wasn’t.
The historic number is one.
Across two weeks and 22 possible head-to-head matchups, Beth Ann’s team would have won exactly once. Her TW of 1 is tied for the third-worst two-week start among all 192 owner-seasons in league history.
She is last in points.
Last in True Win Percentage.
Last here.
There is, however, one extremely inconvenient reason not to bury her yet.
Beth Ann has done this before.
She started 0–2 in 2021.
Then she won the league.
She remains one of only two people ever to do it.
Which means Beth Ann may be terrible.
Or she may simply be right on schedule.
And Then There Were 0-3
Week 3 is where “it’s early” starts doing a little more work.
The undefeated teams have a chance to bank a third win. The 1–1 teams get to decide which side of .500 they’d prefer to live on. And for the three teams sitting at 0–2, the season starts approaching a place very few teams have escaped.
In 15 completed Worst League seasons, 21 teams have started 0–3. Only two made the playoffs. None won the championship.
Which brings us, conveniently, to the most consequential matchup of Week 3: Beth Ann vs. Geoff.
Two 0–2 teams enter, and one of them is guaranteed to leave 0–3 — joining a group that has produced zero champions in 15 years.
So yes, it’s still early. But fall has a way of sneaking up on you.
One week you’re admiring the leaves.
The next you’re buried under them.
