Week 7: Fantasy Obsession
In honor of Halloween, a spooky tale of terror, twists, and fantasy obsession. Some wishes are better left unspoken.
There’s a man named Josh. For 13 years, he’s pursued the one thing he wants more than anything in the world: a Worst League championship. He’s made eight playoff appearances, reached two championship games, and compiled the best regular-season record of any owner without a title.
But nobody remembers second place. Josh wants to be remembered.
One night, while preparing for another fantasy season, he discovers a strange little object among his draft materials. A twisted wooden stick, wrapped in faded red ribbon, with a handwritten tag attached.
ONE WISH WILLOW.
Josh held the novelty toy in his hands and thought, “It couldn’t possibly be real. Could it?”
The instructions are simple. Snap the stick. Make a wish. Whatever your heart desires will come true.
Josh smiles. It’s ridiculous, of course. But what could it hurt?
He closes his eyes, grips the willow with both hands, and whispers:
“I wish I was a Worst League legend.”
SNAP.
For a moment, nothing happens. Josh tosses the broken stick aside and forgets about it.
But something has heard him.
The season begins, and Josh is unstoppable. Three straight victories. Back-to-back weekly high scores. Four consecutive weeks atop the Power Rankings. His playoff odds climb to 87%, and the championship he’s spent 13 years chasing finally seems within reach.
Then the injuries begin.
Davante Adams. Terry McLaurin. Deebo Samuel. One by one, his star receivers disappear. His once-dominant lineup begins to rot from within. A 136-point performance becomes 116. Then 73.82, the worst score in the league.
Josh loses four straight games.
On Sunday night, he sits alone in his parked car, his face illuminated by the cold glow of his phone. Another loss. This time to Gray, 126.76–90.42. He scrolls through his lineup, his hands trembling.
Tony Pollard: 36.5 points. Kirk Cousins: 20.4.
Both on his bench.
Enough points to win. Enough points to end the nightmare. But they’re trapped on the wrong side of the screen.
Something inside Josh snaps.
“No. No. No.”
His voice rises, growing frantic.
“NO! NO! NO! NO! NO!”
He spots a brick on the passenger seat. Almost as if someone left it there for him.
Still screaming, he grabs his phone and slams its face into the brick. Again. And again. The glass splinters. Blood-red cracks spiderweb across the screen. Finally, the display goes black.
Silence.
Josh exhales. His hands stop trembling.
Then, from the passenger seat, a faint glow.
The shattered phone flickers back to life. The same score stares back at him. He cannot undo what has happened.
Back home, he frantically retrieves the broken willow. He tries to snap it again, to reverse the wish, but the wood refuses to break. No matter how hard he pulls, it will not give.
Then, slowly, the horrible truth dawns on him.
He wished to become a Worst League legend.
And he has.
Only one other team in league history has ever started 3-0 and lost its next four games. Josh now shares that distinction with Nick’s infamous 2014 squad, which finished 11th.
His playoff odds have fallen to 48.5%. He’s eighth in the standings. And no team in 15 years has ever won the championship after sitting outside a playoff position at the halfway point.
The willow granted his wish.
It just never promised he’d be remembered for winning.
And the most terrifying part?
The season is only halfway over.
WORST Wisdom: Halftime
Welcome back to WORST Wisdom, the segment in which we use historical statistics to answer questions that fantasy football owners would probably prefer remain unanswered.
This week, we’ve reached the halfway point of the regular season. Seven weeks down, seven to go. Which raises an important question: How much of the season has already been decided?
Is Alex’s playoff berth essentially guaranteed? Can Erik overcome his terrible luck? Are Greco and Kelly living on borrowed time? And does Beth Ann have any hope of escaping the basement?
To find out, I analyzed all 180 owner-seasons in Worst League history, going back to 2011.
The findings are simultaneously encouraging, discouraging, and potentially devastating to eight of you.
The championship race may already be down to four teams.
Throughout the league’s 15-year history, every single champion has passed two tests at the halfway point:
They were already in a playoff position after Week 7.
They ranked in the top half of the league in true wins.
That’s 15 champions. Fifteen for 15 on both measures. In fact, no eventual champion has ever been seeded worse than fifth at the midpoint.
So who passes both tests this year?
Gray. Alex. Geoff. Brandon.
That’s it.
Greco is the 2 seed, but she ranks ninth in true wins. Kelly holds the final playoff spot but ranks 11th. Erik, Josh and Chelsie all rank in the top half in true wins, but currently sit outside the playoff picture. Samantha, Jess and Beth Ann fail both tests.
To be clear, this doesn’t mean the champion has to be one of those four teams. Historical patterns are not guarantees, and eventually someone will break this one.
But after 15 years of evidence, the championship has never been won by a team in the position that eight of our owners currently occupy.
That being said, the playoff field is far from settled.
While the eventual champion has always been in a playoff position at halftime, the complete playoff field is another story.
Since the league expanded to six playoff teams in 2018, 38 of the 48 teams holding a playoff spot after Week 7 have held on. That’s approximately 79%. The other 10 spots were claimed by teams that were on the outside looking in at the midpoint.
In other words, roughly one or two teams crash the playoff party every year.
And here’s the interesting part: not once since 2018 have the same six teams occupied the playoff spots at halftime and at the end of the season. There’s always been at least one surprise.
The biggest comeback was Alex in 2021, who sat dead last at 2-5 after Week 7 before climbing all the way to second place. Let that be an inspiration to every team owner currently with a losing record.
The most spectacular collapse? Gray in 2022.
At the midpoint, Gray was 6-1, ranked first in the standings and sported an impressive .818 true win percentage. By season’s end, he was 10th and watching the playoffs from home.
That’s right. Even a team with an excellent record and elite underlying numbers can implode.
Sorry, Alex.
Halftime
Seed after Week 7 vs. where every team finished, 2018–2025
Explore how every team since 2018 was seeded after Week 7 versus where it ultimately finished. Solid dots made the playoffs; hollow dots missed. Hover over a current owner’s name to highlight the historical results for teams with that same midpoint seed.
But how far back is too far?
If history is any indication, the dividing line is two games.
Since 2011, no team has ever made the playoffs from more than two games behind the final playoff spot at the midpoint.
Only two teams have even accomplished it from exactly two games back: Alex in 2021 and Josh in 2025.
This year, Erik, Josh, Chelsie and Samantha are all one game back. Jess is two games back, placing her at the outer edge of historical possibility. Beth Ann is three games back.
I would characterize her situation as mathematically possible and historically unprecedented. A distinction her playoff odds of 0.035% seem to understand.
The good news: luck resets.
There’s another reason the standings could look considerably different seven weeks from now.
Luck, it turns out, has almost no memory.
I compared each team’s luck during Weeks 1–7 with its luck over the remainder of the regular season. The correlation was −.01.
For the statistically uninitiated, that is essentially zero.
Teams that were exceptionally lucky in the first half, winning at a .724 clip, played just .508 football the rest of the way. Meanwhile, teams that were exceptionally unlucky in the first half improved from a .335 winning percentage to .534.
For Greco, Kelly and Alex, currently the league’s three luckiest teams, that should be mildly concerning. For Erik and Gray, the league’s unluckiest, it’s welcome news.
And while luck doesn’t carry over, quality does, at least somewhat. First-half true win percentage correlates with second-half true win percentage at .37. More importantly, first-half true wins predict second-half records about twice as well as first-half actual records do, although neither relationship is particularly strong.
So what have we learned?
The second half is largely a fresh start. Teams that have been lucky shouldn’t expect that luck to continue, while teams that have been unlucky have reason to expect better results.
And if the past 15 years tell us anything about the championship race, we should be paying much closer attention to Gray, Alex, Geoff and Brandon.
The other eight teams?
Well, there’s a first time for everything.
The Power Rankings
Seven weeks into the season, we have a 6-1 team atop the standings, a 5-2 team ranked ninth in true wins, and a 3-4 team that could be 6-1 with better lineup decisions.
We also just experienced the lowest-scoring week of the season, with teams averaging 106.88 points. That’s the second consecutive week the league average has reached a new low.
But that didn’t stop Samantha from delivering a perfect lineup and claiming the weekly prize. Or Erik from suffering the closest loss of his 16-year career. Or Josh from watching ESPN’s highest-scoring fantasy running back accumulate 36.5 points on his bench.
Power Rankings
By True Win Percentage, through Week 1
| Counting the wins nobody played for… |
As always, the Power Rankings are based on true wins, not the standings. Let’s see where everyone sits at halftime.
1. Gray (—) — 4-3 | 932.24 pts | .740 TW% | Playoffs: 90.6%
If you were designing the perfect Worst League championship roster, you might imagine a team built around dominant running backs, dependable receivers, and a balanced lineup that can survive just about anything. You’d also be about six years behind the times.
In the league’s pre-PPR era, every champion had a top-half running back group. Since PPR scoring began in 2020, however, five of six champions have finished with a bottom-half running back group, while four have led the league in receiver points. Which brings us to Gray, whose team ranks first in receiver scoring, second at tight end, and seventh at running back. It’s practically a blueprint for a modern champion.
And the running backs aren’t even that bad. Kyren Williams has averaged 19.6 points per start, while free-agent acquisition Alvin Kamara has provided useful depth. Chase Brown and Rico Dowdle have been disappointing relative to their draft positions, but the receivers have more than compensated.
On Sunday, Gray benched Joe Burrow, who scored 28.88 points, the highest total of any rostered quarterback in Week 7. Jordan Love scored just 16.96 in his place, but it didn’t matter. Gray still demolished Josh, 126.76–90.42, improving his record to 4-3 and his playoff odds to 90.6%.
The projections are equally encouraging. ESPN expects Gray to average 136.0 points per week the rest of the way, a full 9.2 points better than anyone else. With the league’s most productive offense, the top true win percentage, and favorable schedule, he looks every bit the championship contender.
There is, however, one historical oddity worth mentioning. This is the seventh time Gray has led the league in true wins after Week 7. In his previous six attempts, he won exactly zero championships. His two titles came in seasons when he wasn’t the midpoint true wins leader.
Perhaps the biggest threat to Gray’s championship aspirations is being too good too early.
2. Alex (+1) — 6-1 | 865.48 pts | .662 TW% | Playoffs: 96.1%
At 6-1, Alex is off to the best seven-week start of his Worst League career. It’s also a remarkably convincing record for a team with a few remarkably unconvincing receivers.
Jaylen Waddle has scored in single digits in five of seven weeks. Nico Collins followed his 30.8-point explosion in Week 4 with increasingly disappointing performances, culminating in a 2.6 on Sunday. DeVonta Smith has been inconsistent and was inactive this week, leaving Jameson Williams, who delivered 26.1 points, as the lone bright spot. Fortunately, Christian McCaffrey and Brock Bowers have been doing the heavy lifting.
Alex even survived the Jaguars’ bye week, with Trevor Lawrence, Bhayshul Tuten and Brian Thomas Jr. all unavailable. Free-agent pickup Bo Nix filled in beautifully, producing 26.18 points to help the Broncos fan beat Geoff, 114.28–108.90, for his third consecutive victory.
So how good is this team, really? The underlying numbers suggest it’s very good, but perhaps not quite as dominant as the record implies. Alex ranks second in true wins, but he’s also faced the fewest points against in the league. His luck sits at +.195, and he still hasn’t posted a weekly high score.
Of course, history suggests we shouldn’t be too concerned. Of the 13 teams in league history to start 6-1, 12 made the playoffs and three won the championship. His current .662 TW% also compares favorably to the .633 he posted at this point during his 2015 championship season.
The schedule offers another reason for optimism. His next two opponents are Chelsie and Beth Ann, and he has one of the easiest remaining schedules in the league. Whether Alex is a great team or simply a very good team enjoying excellent scheduling, the distinction may soon become irrelevant.
At 96.1%, the playoffs are practically calling ahead to reserve him a table.
(Brandon’s note: How you like that jinx?)
3. Erik (−1) — 3-4 | 893.44 pts | .636 TW% | Playoffs: 56.8%
At some point, Erik may want to consider filing a formal complaint with the league.
On Sunday, he lost to Greco by 0.74 points, the narrowest loss of his entire 16-year Worst League career and the 12th-closest decision in the league’s 1,232 regular-season games. His second-closest loss? A 0.94-point defeat to Kelly in Week 2. That’s right. Erik has suffered the two closest losses of his career in the first seven weeks of this season.
He also left 23.2 points from KC Concepcion on his bench Sunday, another painful lineup mistake in a season full of them. Three of Erik’s four losses were games his optimal lineup would have won. If he’d made the correct decisions every week, he’d be 6-1, with the league’s highest true win percentage.
As if that weren’t enough, Erik’s opponents have averaged 12.38 points more than their own season averages when facing him. Brandon and Gray even posted their respective season highs against him. It’s enough to make you believe the fantasy gods have a personal vendetta.
But there’s a real problem here beyond the bad luck: his second running back. While Bijan Robinson has been excellent, Erik’s RB2 has averaged a miserable 6.8 points per game, the second-worst mark in the league. David Montgomery averaged just 4.2 points across Weeks 2–5 before missing the next two games with a groin injury, and his replacements have been no better.
Despite everything, Erik still ranks third in true wins. History suggests his luck should improve, and he has one of the easiest remaining schedules, so there’s plenty of reason to believe a turnaround is coming.
The question is whether he can make the right lineup decisions when it does.
He’ll get a chance to begin the second half against Josh, another owner who probably believes the universe has turned against him.
4. Geoff (+2) — 4-3 | 838.06 pts | .571 TW% | Playoffs: 68.5%
Geoff’s fantasy team has a secret identity. It’s the Dallas Cowboys.
CeeDee Lamb and Javonte Williams have combined for 286.0 points this season, accounting for 34.1% of Geoff’s entire starting lineup production. Both have started every week, both have been indispensable, and together they’ve helped turn Geoff into one of the league’s steadiest teams.
He hasn’t posted a top-three score all season, but he also hasn’t posted a bottom-three score. His luck is exactly .000, meaning his 4-3 record is precisely what his performance has earned. Unfortunately, that dependable formula wasn’t enough against Alex, who beat him 114.28–108.90.
The frustrating part? Geoff started the Texans D/ST, which scored zero points, while the Bengals D/ST put up eight on his bench. One simple substitution would have won the matchup.
Looking ahead, Geoff’s reliance on Dallas creates an interesting schedule problem. The Cowboys have favorable receiver matchups in Weeks 9–11, including a particularly enticing matchup against Tennessee in Week 11. But the schedule gets considerably tougher in Weeks 12 (vs. PHI) and 13 (@ SEA), before Dallas takes its bye in Week 14.
That means Geoff will be without his two most productive players for the final week of the fantasy regular season. The saving grace is that his opponent that week is Beth Ann, whose entire roster has produced approximately as much optimism as an abandoned haunted house.
T-5. Josh (−1) — 3-4 | 857.50 pts | .545 TW% | Playoffs: 48.5%
Josh’s nightmare season continued Sunday, when he scored 90.42 points against Gray. But the real horror was sitting on his bench, where Tony Pollard erupted for 36.5 points and Kirk Cousins added another 20.4. Meanwhile, his starting quarterback, Bryce Young, produced just 5.42.
With his best possible lineup, Josh would have scored 142.10 and beaten Gray. Instead, he lost by 36.34 points. The quarterback position alone has cost Josh 32.50 points in lineup decisions this season, second-most in the league.
But the bigger problem is at wide receiver. After averaging 51.6 points per week through Week 4, Josh’s receivers have averaged just 25.0 over the last three games. Injuries to Davante Adams, Terry McLaurin and Deebo Samuel have stripped away the position group that made him so dangerous, leaving Chris Olave, DeMario Douglas and Christian Kirk to combine for just 16.9 points Sunday.
Fortunately, his running backs remain excellent. Jahmyr Gibbs and Ashton Jeanty have given him the league’s best RB1 production, and ESPN still projects Josh for 120.9 points per week the rest of the way, fifth-best in the league.
Despite four consecutive losses, the playoff outlook isn’t quite as bleak as it might seem. Josh is just one game back, his odds sit at 48.5%, and he made the playoffs last season after starting 2-5. If anyone should believe a second-half comeback is possible, it’s him.
So is it time to panic? About making the playoffs, probably not. About winning the championship, however, 15 years of history suggest the window may already be closing.
T-5. Brandon (0) — 4-3 | 842.84 pts | .545 TW% | Playoffs: 62.4%
In the immortal words of Aaron Paul: “He can’t keep getting away with this!”
Brandon has now won three consecutive games despite starting six different quarterbacks in seven weeks, producing the league’s worst quarterback scoring average at 12.8 points per game, and accumulating the worst overall draft value at −122.2 points. His Week 7 starting quarterback, Baker Mayfield, scored 6.66 points.
Naturally, Brandon won.
His 95.56–93.98 victory over Jess was his first lucky win of the season, and it required remarkably little production from the position he has treated like a weekly Craigslist rental. So how is this working? Running backs.
Brandon’s backs average a league-leading 48.0 points per game, a full 5.1 points better than the next-best team. Even with Kenneth Walker III posting a season-low 9.7 points on Sunday, the position group remains the foundation of his success.
And strangely enough, this isn’t new territory. Three of Brandon’s four championships came in seasons when his quarterback group ranked in the bottom three of the league: 2011, 2018 and 2020. No other champion has accomplished that feat even once.
So perhaps Brandon knows something the rest of the league doesn’t. Or perhaps this is a deeply questionable strategy that has somehow worked on three separate occasions.
There is one important caveat. No team that finished last in quarterback production has ever won the championship. And at 12.8 points per game, Brandon currently occupies that very position.
The schedule won’t make things easier, either. He faces the fourth-hardest remaining slate, beginning with Kelly before consecutive matchups against Samantha, Alex and Gray. At some point, he may need a quarterback who can actually score points.
But apparently, not yet.
T-5. Chelsie (+2) — 3-4 | 819.58 pts | .545 TW% | Playoffs: 25.3%
Ladies and gentlemen, we have a development.
After six consecutive weeks of starting the wrong tight end, Chelsie finally got it right. Colston Loveland scored 19.9 points Sunday, her best tight end start of the season by 9.1 points.
Unfortunately, there is an asterisk. Dalton Kincaid was on bye, meaning Chelsie didn’t so much solve her tight end dilemma as have the NFL solve it for her.
Still, progress is progress. And for the second consecutive week, Loveland delivered an excellent performance, following his 18.5-point bench outing in Week 6 with Sunday’s 19.9-point start. If Chelsie keeps him in the lineup, the problem may finally be behind her.
The rest of her team certainly did its part Sunday. Jaxon Smith-Njigba exploded for 31.3 points, helping Chelsie post the second-highest score of the week at 129.22. Unfortunately, she ran into Samantha, who posted the highest score. It was Chelsie’s first unlucky loss of the season.
And now comes the really bad news.
Her next three opponents are Alex, Gray and Erik, the three highest-ranked teams in true wins. Chelsie has the second-hardest remaining schedule in the league, and her playoff odds have slipped to 25.3%.
For the defending champion, the next three weeks could determine whether she gets a chance to defend her crown at all. The good news is that her team is better than its record, ranking tied for fifth in true wins, which suggests she has the talent to compete with the league’s best.
The bad news is that the schedule apparently believes she needs to prove it.
Immediately.
8. Samantha (+1) — 3-4 | 779.94 pts | .481 TW% | Playoffs: 33.3%
Last week, Samantha claimed Josh Jacobs off waivers in one of the most remarkable sequences of events in Worst League history. This week, she got to see what he could do.
Jacobs delivered 20.1 points in his debut, combining with Rhamondre Stevenson and Blake Corum to give Samantha 59.7 points from her running backs. That’s her best running back performance of the season by a staggering 25.0 points, and it helped power Samantha to a league-leading 143.14 points.
Even more impressive? She set a perfect lineup, leaving not one point of potential improvement on her bench. It was just the fifth perfect lineup of her career since 2018, and it came against Chelsie, who had the misfortune of posting the week’s second-highest score.
The win nearly doubled Samantha’s playoff odds, from 17.8% to 33.3%, the second-largest improvement in the league this week. The question now is whether Jacobs can continue to be the missing piece.
Even after Sunday’s explosion, Samantha’s running backs still rank 10th in the league for the season, so one great week hasn’t erased seven weeks of mediocre production. And the NFL’s personal-conduct review of Jacobs remains ongoing, meaning further discipline is possible.
For now, though, the arrow is pointing up. Samantha is just one game behind the playoff line, and ESPN projects her for 130.5 points in Week 8, the third-highest projection in the league. Her next two opponents are Beth Ann and Brandon, giving her an excellent opportunity to build momentum.
If the Jacobs effect is real, Samantha could be right back in the playoff picture before anyone knows what happened.
Except Josh.
Josh probably knows exactly what happened.
(Brandon’s note: I actually lol’ed.)
9. Greco (−1) — 5-2 | 779.22 pts | .442 TW% | Playoffs: 78.3%
Greco has become something of a legend for her ability to start players who aren’t actually playing football and somehow win anyway.
On Sunday, she started Khalil Shakir at FLEX, despite the Buffalo Bills being on bye. Shakir scored zero points, as players whose teams are not playing football are generally known to do. And yet, Greco defeated Erik by 0.74 points.
Naturally, this raised an important question: how often does she get away with this? So I investigated.
Since 2018, there have been 19 instances of owners starting players whose NFL teams were on bye. Greco is responsible for 11 of them. That’s more than every other owner combined, an astonishing achievement made even more impressive by the fact that she has occasionally started multiple players on bye in the same week.
But the reputation that she always wins anyway? Not quite. Across the seven weeks in which Greco has started at least one player on bye, she’s gone just 2-5. Sunday was only the second time she pulled off a victory.
So perhaps the more accurate characterization is that Greco frequently forgets to set her lineup and occasionally gets away with it.
Still, she got away with it this week. Her 100.02–99.28 win over Erik was the second-narrowest victory of her career, and it improved her record to 5-2. That’s particularly remarkable considering she ranks just ninth in true wins, with a luck rating of +.273, tied with Kelly for the highest in the league.
As WORST Wisdom established, luck like that historically has a way of disappearing in the second half. But Greco has one major advantage working in her favor: the easiest remaining schedule in the league, with opponents averaging just a .434 true win percentage.
Her playoff odds have climbed to 78.3%, placing her in excellent position to make the postseason. Winning the championship, however, would require breaking a 15-year pattern, since no champion has ever ranked outside the top half in true wins at the midpoint.
And possibly remembering to check the NFL bye schedule.
10. Jess (−1) — 2-5 | 799.68 pts | .377 TW% | Playoffs: 15.2%
Jess has three quarterbacks. That should be a luxury, but instead, it’s become a recurring source of psychological torment.
On Sunday, she started Aaron Rodgers, who scored 13.08 points, while Caleb Williams scored 22.12 on her bench. The difference was 9.04 points, more than enough to cover her 1.58-point loss to Brandon.
It was her third loss of the season that her best possible lineup would have won. And the problem goes well beyond this week, with Jess having lost 36.32 points to quarterback decisions through seven games, more than any other owner in the league.
What makes the situation particularly frustrating is that she hasn’t necessarily been making unreasonable choices. In each of the last two weeks, Jess started the quarterback ESPN projected to score the most points. Both times, that quarterback finished behind at least one she benched.
She followed the advice. She made the logical decision. She still got it wrong.
This is the danger of having three playable quarterbacks. Instead of solving a problem, it creates a weekly multiple-choice test in which there is always at least one incorrect answer. And Jess appears unusually talented at finding it.
The consequences are becoming serious. At 2-5, Jess is two games behind the playoff line. Since 2018, only two of 14 teams between one and a half and two games back at halftime have made the playoffs, and her odds have fallen to 15.2%.
The second half begins against Greco, whose own lineup decisions suggest that sometimes the best strategy is to stop thinking about them entirely.
Perhaps Jess should try that.
11. Kelly (0) — 4-3 | 724.06 pts | .299 TW% | Playoffs: 25.0%
Kelly is 4-3. She also ranks 11th in true wins, has the league’s worst running back production, and has left more points on her bench through seven weeks than any owner since bench data became available in 2018.
The total? 188.96 points. That narrowly surpasses Brandon’s previous record of 188.14 in 2024.
So congratulations, Kelly. You’re making history. Just perhaps not the kind you were hoping for.
Sunday provided another example. Kelly defeated Beth Ann 93.92–87.02 despite leaving 34.90 points of potential improvement on her bench. Tre Tucker scored 21.3, Emanuel Wilson had 18.5, and T.J. Hockenson added 13.5. Her optimal lineup would have scored 128.82, but instead, she scraped out another lucky victory.
The more concerning development may be at running back, where Kelly owns Emanuel Wilson and Jadarian Price in Seattle’s increasingly crowded backfield. Wilson has provided some much-needed production recently, but Zach Charbonnet is nearing a return, while Price is also eligible to come back from injured reserve. More healthy running backs could mean fewer opportunities for everyone.
And just when that situation couldn’t get more complicated, both of Kelly’s Eagles running backs suffered injuries Monday night. Saquon Barkley was limited by back and hamstring issues, while Dameon Pierce exited in the fourth quarter. For a team already averaging a league-worst 21.7 points from its running backs, that’s unwelcome news.
The larger concern, though, is historical. At this exact point last season, Kelly was 4-3 and sitting in the sixth playoff spot. She finished 10th.
This season, she’s once again 4-3 and holding the final playoff position, but with a +.273 luck rating and the third-hardest remaining schedule. Her playoff odds have fallen to 25.0%, and history suggests the second half could be difficult.
Kelly still has an opportunity to make the first playoff appearance of her career. But if her luck runs out, she’ll have to start turning some of those bench points into actual production.
At least the bench will be well-rested.
12. Beth Ann (0) — 1-6 | 652.40 pts | .156 TW% | Playoffs: 0.035%
Five years ago, Beth Ann won the Worst League championship. Today, she is threatening to assemble one of the worst teams in league history.
And I don’t mean that as an insult. I mean it as a statistically verifiable possibility.
Through seven weeks, Beth Ann’s true win percentage sits at .156, the lowest seven-week true win percentage in the entire 15-year history of the league. The previous record was Trevor’s .182 in 2017, while the lowest full-season true win percentage belongs to Nick, who finished 2020 at .203.
Beth Ann is currently on pace to eclipse that mark. Even accounting for differences in scoring across eras, her performance is approaching historic territory. Her average standardized weekly score sits at −0.95, nearly identical to Erik’s −0.96 in 2011, the worst full-season scoring performance on record.
So what went wrong? Let’s revisit the draft.
Beth Ann selected Omarion Hampton with the 11th overall pick. Through seven weeks, he’s produced 57.5 points, 49.0 fewer than expected from that draft position. With her next pick, No. 14 overall, she took A.J. Brown, who has scored 19.1 points total.
That’s 81.6 points below expectation, making Brown the worst draft value in the entire league. Then there’s Lamar Jackson, selected 38th overall, who has missed time with a high ankle sprain and scored zero points in each of the last three weeks.
Add in sixth-round pick TreVeyon Henderson, and Beth Ann’s first, second, fourth and sixth selections are a combined 208.2 points below expectation. That is a staggering amount of draft capital producing very little return.
There have been bright spots. Eighth-round pick Chuba Hubbard has exceeded expectations, while 13th-round selection Tyler Shough has provided a useful replacement for Jackson. But they haven’t been nearly enough.
Beth Ann has posted the league’s lowest score three times this season, including Sunday’s 87.02-point effort against Kelly. She has the hardest remaining schedule, the lowest rest-of-season projection, and sits three games behind the playoff line. No team has ever made the playoffs from that far back at halftime.
Technically, her odds remain above zero at 0.035%. More realistically, the question is whether she can avoid becoming the first owner since Jess in 2022 and 2023 to suffer consecutive Poop Bowl defeats.
From champion to potential historical futility in five years.
Fantasy football can be a cruel sport.
The Playoff Picture
With seven weeks remaining, the standings are starting to separate into distinct groups. But as WORST Wisdom demonstrated, there’s plenty of room for movement.
The Playoff Picture
The Favorites
Alex (96.1%) and Gray (90.6%) have established themselves as the two strongest playoff favorites. Alex has the record and a favorable schedule, while Gray has the highest true win percentage, the most points, and the best rest-of-season projection.
They’ve taken different routes to get here, but both appear firmly in control of their playoff destinies.
The Contenders
Greco (78.3%), Geoff (68.5%) and Brandon (62.4%) occupy the next tier. Greco was the week’s biggest winner in the playoff model, gaining 17.3 percentage points, while Brandon gained 13.6 with his third consecutive victory. Geoff slipped 4.9 points but remains in solid position.
Erik (56.8%) has the best underlying numbers of anyone outside the current playoff field. His favorable remaining schedule could help him overcome his league-worst luck, while Josh (48.5%) is rapidly approaching coin-flip territory after losing four straight.
The Bubble
Samantha (33.3%) nearly doubled her odds with Sunday’s perfect lineup and the arrival of Josh Jacobs. Chelsie (25.3%) and Kelly (25.0%) are separated by just three-tenths of a percentage point despite having very different records and statistical profiles.
Chelsie has the stronger underlying team, but a much tougher immediate schedule. Kelly currently holds the final playoff spot, but her poor true win percentage and unusually good luck suggest she may be vulnerable.
The Long Shots
Jess (15.2%) suffered the week’s biggest decline, dropping 15.4 percentage points after losing to Brandon. At two games back, she still has a historical path to the playoffs, but the margin for error is shrinking.
Beth Ann (0.035%) is still technically alive. I can confirm that the simulation did not round her chances down to zero.
That concludes the positive news.
Week 8: The Second Half Begins
The first week after halftime brings several matchups with major playoff implications.
Josh and Erik meet in a battle of talented teams with losing records. Both desperately need a win, and both have compelling arguments that they should have far better records than they do.
Geoff faces Gray, giving one of the league’s steadiest teams an opportunity to knock off its most statistically dominant. Alex takes on Chelsie, whose difficult three-week stretch begins immediately, while Brandon faces Kelly in a matchup between two 4-3 teams whose records conceal wildly different underlying performances.
Meanwhile, Samantha gets an opportunity to build momentum against Beth Ann, while Jess tries to keep her season alive against Greco.
And somewhere, perhaps buried in a drawer or tossed into a trash can, Josh’s One Wish Willow sits quietly.
Waiting.
Seven weeks remain.
The first half has shown us who the best teams are. The second half will determine whether any of that actually matters.
Happy Halloween!
