Week 8: Mutants Among Us
For centuries, scientists have wondered whether certain people are born with extraordinary abilities. The power to control the weather. To bend probability. To survive injuries that would destroy ordinary humans.
Or, in one particularly rare case, to start Tre Tucker the exact week he receives zero targets.
Last week, the world lost Sir Patrick Stewart, the actor who gave Professor Charles Xavier his unmistakable voice, his dignity, and his unwavering belief that even the most unusual people might have something remarkable to offer.
In his honor, I have built a Cerebro of my own.
A machine capable of detecting every mutant on Earth. Still can’t find a quarterback for Brandon.
Professor Xavier used Cerebro to locate mutants across the planet. We will use true wins and 20,000 simulations to locate them in a 12-team fantasy football league. The technology is somewhat less advanced. Xavier could read minds. I have no idea why Beth Ann started a kicker who was on bye.
The machine whirs. Twelve signals appear.
Gray is Cyclops: the field general, steady enough to lead the X-Men even when two of his starters score zero. Alex is Wolverine: take away his best players and someone else grows into the job. Erik is Magneto: the most fearsome collection of raw power in the league, capable of destroying anyone. Josh is Multiple Man: wherever you look, another starting running back appears.
Chelsie is Colossus: so difficult to knock down that even her worst score is respectable. Geoff is Juggernaut: an unstoppable force, provided Braelon Allen gets moving. Samantha is Storm: after weeks of calm, two spectacular lightning strikes. Brandon is Rogue: absorbing temporary powers from free agents because he apparently cannot produce a quarterback of his own.
Jess is Havok: capable of a spectacular explosion, with very little control over when it happens. Greco is Domino: probability bends in her favor, no matter what her true wins suggest. Kelly is Mystique: her strongest lineup remains expertly disguised on the bench. And Beth Ann is Phoenix: surrounded by ashes, still searching for the first sign of a rebirth.
WORST removes the Cerebro helmet, sitting in silence, contemplating the future.
Six weeks remain. Cyclops and Wolverine are headed for a Week 14 showdown. And half the league is wondering whether seven wins will be enough to get through the mansion gates.
Professor X can read minds. But even he cannot predict the future.
And the future of the Worst League has yet to be written.
WORST Wisdom: The Magic Number
How many wins does it actually take to make the playoffs?
With six games left, owners are doing the same math. Can I get to 7-7? Do I need 8-6? Is 6-8 enough if everyone else gets very unlucky and we change several league rules?
I’ve examined every final regular-season record since 2011, seeding teams the way the Worst League actually does: wins first, total points as the tiebreaker. Because seasons were 13 games through 2020 and have been 14 since 2021, the two eras need to be judged separately. And because only four teams made the playoffs before 2018, a top-six finish in those years is a hypothetical comparison—not an actual playoff berth.
In the current 14-game format, the answer is remarkably clear: seven is the bubble. Eight is the goal. Nine is a guarantee.
Of the 21 teams that finished with six wins or fewer, none made the top six. At seven wins, only five of 13 made it (38%). At eight, 13 of 14 got in (93%). All 12 teams with nine or more wins made it. The lone eight-win casualty was Beth Ann in 2022, who finished 8-6 and missed on points by 12.52.
Magic Number
How many wins it takes to finish in the top six, every season since 2011
The extra game hasn’t changed the standard much. In the old 13-game seasons, the sixth-place team averaged 6.7 wins. In 14-game seasons, it averages 7.4. That’s a jump from a .515 winning percentage to .529. The bar is effectively the same height; the season just gives everyone another chance to trip over it.
But the more revealing number isn’t seven or eight. It’s the tiebreaker.
In four of the five 14-game seasons, sixth and seventh place finished with identical records. In 2021, Samantha beat Jess on points. In 2022, Erik edged Beth Ann. In 2023, Brandon beat Nick. And in 2025, Samantha took the final spot from Brandon by 1.74 points. A dropped pass in September can apparently ruin someone’s December.
Now look at the paths facing this year’s teams. The simulation projects the final playoff cut at seven wins in 67% of seasons and eight wins in 32%. But seven wins do not mean the same thing for everyone. A team’s point total can be as important as its record.
At 7-7, Erik makes the playoffs 71% of the time, Josh 61%, and Gray 80%. Jess gets in 36% of the time, Brandon 42%, and Greco just 14%. Same record. Entirely different outcomes.
Wall of Destiny
Playoff odds at every possible final record
Alex needs just one more win to reach eight, where his chances are approximately 99%. Gray needs two wins to reach seven, a finish that gives him an 80% chance. Josh can get to seven by going 3-3, where he’s a 61% favorite to survive the cut. And Erik, despite starting 3-5, can go 4-2 and still get in 71% of the time.
For Brandon and Greco, 3-3 gets them to eight and puts them in excellent shape. Geoff, Samantha and Kelly would need to go 4-2 for the same eight-win finish. Jess and Chelsie face the truly unpleasant assignment: 5-1 over their last six to get to eight. Even Beth Ann isn’t mathematically eliminated, though going 6-0 would leave her with just a 17% chance at 7-7.
Here, then, is the magic number: seven wins gets you to the door. Points decide whether it opens. Eight usually gets you inside. Nine means you can stop checking the lock.
Brandon, who lost the last spot by 1.74 points a year ago, would appreciate it if someone could explain why the door has to be so complicated.
The Power Rankings
Ranked by the strength of the team, not just its record. True wins measure how often a team would have beaten the rest of the league. Playoff odds come from 20,000 simulations. The league averaged 115.22 points in Week 8, up from 106.88 the week before.
Power Rankings
By True Win Percentage, through Week 1
| Counting the wins nobody played for… |
1. Gray (—) — 5-3 | 1,055.22 pts | .727 TW% | Playoffs: 94.2%
Gray is still the X-Men’s Cyclops: the man in charge, the most complete roster in the league, and apparently someone who doesn’t require a full starting lineup to win. Zay Flowers and Will Reichard combined for zero points. Parker Washington added 3.6. Gray still beat Geoff 122.98–93.88 because Joe Burrow threw for 462 yards and five touchdowns (39.48 points), while the Jaguars defense contributed 21.0.
He has the best floor in the league, having never scored below 109.18, and ranks in the top three at quarterback, tight end, wide receiver and defense. He leads Alex by two true wins. This is the seventh time Gray has led the league in true wins through Week 8. The previous six produced finishes of second, third, third, eighth, 10th and third. Somehow, not one championship. A truly impressive commitment to being very good at the wrong time.
The concern is Flowers. With Lamar Jackson headed to IR and Tyler Huntley dealing with a toe injury, Baltimore may be forced to rely on an undrafted rookie unless it brings in a veteran before the NFL’s Nov. 10 trade deadline. Gray may need a receiver of his own. Two more wins would get him to seven, where his playoff chances are 80%. And in Week 14, Cyclops meets Wolverine.
2. Alex (—) — 7-1 | 1,020.88 pts | .705 TW% | Playoffs: 99.6%
Last week, I observed that Alex wasn’t quite as dominant as his record suggested. Alex called it bulletin-board material. Then he scored 155.40 points, won the weekly prize, and informed the group that the bulletin-board material had worked. Though I am merely a robot who presents the numbers without bias or favor, I am now considering offering this service to other owners for a nominal fee.
It was a perfect lineup, his third-best score since 2018, and his first weekly high since Week 11 of 2025. With Christian McCaffrey on a bye, Bhayshul Tuten delivered 29.9, Brock Bowers scored 28.2, and Jonah Coleman added 20.4 in his first start. Coleman had spent five weeks sitting in Alex’s IR slot before taking 68% of Denver’s snaps and apparently taking J.K. Dobbins’s job along with them. Conveniently, Alex owns Dobbins, too. Even most of the receivers I questioned last week showed up.
That’s Wolverine’s healing factor in action. Lose three starters to a bye, win. Lose McCaffrey to a bye, find another starting running back. Alex is now 7-1, and all nine teams that previously stood 7-1 after Week 8 made the playoffs; three won the championship. He needs only one more win to reach the eight-win safety zone.
His next opponent is Beth Ann.
I regret having mentioned any of this.
3. Erik (—) — 3-5 | 1,010.10 pts | .614 TW% | Playoffs: 40.2%
Erik Lehnsherr could bend metal with his mind.
Erik, our Magneto, would settle for bending his second running back into the end zone. His roster leads the league in quarterback scoring (24.8 per game) and receiver scoring (49.6), and produces more points from drafted players than anyone else. Yet his second running back has averaged 3.0 points per week since Week 2. There are actual refrigerator magnets contributing more to their households.
Tee Higgins erupted for 37.5, Josh Allen added 26.56, and Erik still lost 133.38–116.66 to Josh. Bijan Robinson managed 7.6; Jordan Mason scored 2.0 in his first game after Erik acquired him from Brandon for Sam LaPorta. Mark Andrews, starting in LaPorta’s place, supplied another 4.4. Erik left only 0.60 points on his bench. This was not a managerial failure. His players simply declined to cooperate.
At 3-5, he has the league’s third-best true-win percentage and its worst luck (−.239). His next six opponents constitute the second-easiest remaining schedule, and a 4-2 finish would give him a 71% chance of reaching the playoffs at 7-7. History offers mixed comfort: all five teams to make the playoffs from 3-5 reached seven wins, including Erik in 2017. But three 3-5 teams with even better true-win percentages than his all missed. The power is there. Magneto just needs six more weeks to prove it matters.
4. Josh (+1) — 4-4 | 990.88 pts | .580 TW% | Playoffs: 66.3%
Josh’s four-game losing streak is over, and his solution was to become Multiple Man.
Already rich in running backs, he traded Bryce Young to Chelsie for Jaylen Warren, who immediately scored 21.3. Jahmyr Gibbs added 24.8 and Kirk Cousins delivered 28.18 as Josh beat Erik 133.38–116.66. It was the third-highest score of the week, and his playoff odds jumped 17.8 percentage points, the largest gain in the league.
The problem with having endless copies of yourself is deciding which ones get to play. Tony Pollard scored 28.7 on the bench. Emmett Johnson added 25.3 next to him. In two weeks, Pollard alone has deposited 65.2 points into Josh’s unused inventory. Meanwhile, Ashton Jeanty had only two carries, raising questions about whether his role is changing. ESPN expects him to reclaim the lead in Week 9, while Pollard has been mentioned as a potential move before the NFL’s Nov. 10 trade deadline.
Johnson, incidentally, is the handcuff to Brandon’s Kenneth Walker III. So Josh has depth, insurance, and the ability to annoy another owner without doing anything at all. (Brandon’s note: Can confirm.)
He also has the easiest remaining schedule in the league. A 3-3 finish gets him to seven wins and a 61% chance of advancing. Multiple Man may finally have found the one version of himself who makes the playoffs.
5. Chelsie (—) — 3-5 | 942.84 pts | .568 TW% | Playoffs: 14.3%
Colossus is practically indestructible.
Chelsie is the closest thing the Worst League has: her scores fluctuate less than anyone else’s, and she has never dipped below 105.72. In Week 8 she scored 123.26, fourth-best in the league, and was rewarded with a matchup against Alex’s 155.40. Another unlucky loss. Even organic steel has its limits.
The optics of her trade with Josh were not encouraging. She sent Jaylen Warren, who scored 21.3, for Bryce Young, who managed 10.36 while Brock Purdy was on a bye. But another development could change the story. Tyler Allgeier just delivered a career-high 36.1 points on 191 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns. With Jeremiyah Love headed to IR and Bam Knight in the concussion protocol, Allgeier should inherit a much larger role in Arizona’s backfield.
Chelsie has been here before with an unconventional move. After she dropped Nico Collins, Malik Washington has essentially matched his production, start for start. She’ll need another payoff now: her next four opponents are Gray, Erik, Greco and Josh, and the magic number of eight requires a 5-1 finish. The simulation gives her just a 5.9% chance of getting there. Strong enough to survive almost anything, Colossus has drawn a schedule that may test the theory.
T-6. Geoff (-2) — 4-4 | 931.94 pts | .534 TW% | Playoffs: 62.4%
If Braelon Allen is Juggernaut, the rest of Geoff’s roster is the wall he keeps having to run through. Allen has scored 82.4 points in five starts, more than any other free-agent pickup this season, and has three 100-yard games in his last four. In Week 8 he supplied another 23.3. Geoff still lost 122.98–93.88 to Gray, his lowest score of the season.
The Cowboys have been both his engine and his emergency brake. When CeeDee Lamb and Javonte Williams combined for 72.6 in Week 4, Geoff scored his season high. This week they combined for 19.5, even as Dallas scored 30 points, and Geoff hit his season low. The relationship isn’t perfect—Allen helped rescue a quiet Dallas week earlier—but it is becoming uncomfortably familiar. Justin Jefferson, meanwhile, has just 335 receiving yards on the season.
Here’s how important Allen has been: replace his starts with Geoff’s best available bench running back and Geoff would still be 4-4, but with roughly 11 fewer true wins, falling from sixth to ninth in that category. Geoff needs four wins in his last six, with Erik, Greco and Josh up next.
Juggernaut is moving. The question is whether anyone else can keep up.
T-6. Samantha (+2) — 4-4 | 931.90 pts | .534 TW% | Playoffs: 41.8%
After three bottom-three finishes in the first six weeks, Samantha looked like Storm trapped beneath a cloudless sky. Then came 143.14 points in Week 7. Then 151.96 in Week 8. If the weather app says sunny, disregard it.
Her 151.96–80.40 victory over Beth Ann was the biggest blowout of the week, a 71.56-point margin. Ja’Marr Chase scored 31.1, Josh Jacobs contributed 23.2, Drake Maye added 22.46, and Trey McBride—the league’s best tight end so far—delivered 20.2. Samantha has gone from wondering where her points went to having more than she knows what to do with.
Not everything is clear skies. Rookie back Jeremiyah Love is headed to IR, though he was on her bench, and she faces a 4-2 requirement to reach eight wins. The simulation gives her a 31.7% chance of pulling that off. But with Brandon, Kelly and Jess next, the immediate forecast is much friendlier than it looked a month ago.
8. Brandon (-3) — 5-3 | 947.80 pts | .523 TW% | Playoffs: 78.5%
Rogue can borrow another mutant’s powers.
Brandon has embraced the concept so completely that free-agent starters provide a league-high 28.4 points per week for his team. He leads the league in running back and kicker scoring. At quarterback, however, he averages a league-worst 11.6. His borrowed quarterbacks tend to lose their powers somewhere between the waiver claim and kickoff.
This week’s offering was Jacoby Brissett, who scored 3.46 before being benched for Gardner Minshew. Brandon still beat Kelly 104.96–89.34. He’s won four straight, but the last two came with just four true wins apiece, scoring 95.56 and 104.96. It’s the third time he’s won consecutive games with four or fewer true wins, a remarkable skill for someone whose primary hobby is complaining about luck. (Brandon’s note: Hey!)
Will the bill come due? History says luck tends to reset, not reverse. Among 44 teams that were at least +.080 lucky through Week 8, 48% remained lucky the rest of the way, with an average second-half luck of −.003. Brandon is at +.102, but he faces a six-game gauntlet tied for the toughest in the league.
A 3-3 finish would put Brandon in the playoffs 98% of the time; 2-4 drops that to 42%. And after losing last year’s final playoff spot by 1.74 points, he really should know better than to trust anything that looks comfortable.
T-9. Jess (+1) — 3-5 | 922.16 pts | .398 TW% | Playoffs: 20.8%
Jess is Havok, capable of unleashing enormous power with only a passing interest in controlling it. She owns the season’s highest single-week blast, 169.4 points, and has also finished last twice. This week the power cooperated: a perfect lineup, 122.48 points, and a much-needed win over Greco. D’Andre Swift scored 27.9, Puka Nacua scored 25.0, and Caleb Williams returned to the starting quarterback spot.
Unfortunately, getting to the playoffs is a different problem from winning one game. Jess has fewer total points than either of the other 3-5 teams, putting her on the wrong side of most ties. A 4-2 finish gets her to 7-7, but the simulation awards her a playoff spot just 36% of the time. A 5-1 finish would lift that to 97%. Her odds of actually going 5-1 or better are 12.4%.
Her next four opponents—Kelly, Josh, Samantha and Geoff—are all teams she is trying to catch. That gives her four chances to make someone else’s path worse while improving her own. Plus, her waiver pickup, Kenny Gainwell, ran for 140 yards in her lineup in a game Tampa Bay won without completing a pass.
Havok has the power for a run. What nobody knows is when it will go off again.
T-9. Greco (—) — 5-3 | 867.12 pts | .398 TW% | Playoffs: 63.3%
If Domino’s superpower is probability manipulation, Greco has been using it at an elite level. She is 5-3 with a .398 true-win percentage and the league’s biggest luck advantage (+.227). Her true-win percentage is identical to Jess’s. Her actual record is two games better. Somewhere, a statistician is quietly crying.
Even Domino has bad days. Greco managed just 87.90 points against Jess, 11th in the league and good for a single true win. Drake London and DK Metcalf combined for 3.2 points while Rashee Rice’s 18.3 sat on the bench. She left 26.5 points unclaimed in all, and Jonathan Taylor delivered his lowest score in 28 games (6.7). With Taylor in trade rumors before the NFL’s Nov. 10 deadline and DJ Moore nursing a knee injury, Greco’s roster has suddenly become less predictable than her actual luck.
There are real positives: Bucky Irving scored 21.0 and is averaging 121.8 rushing yards over his last four games. And Greco doesn’t need a miracle to make the playoffs. A 3-3 finish gets her to eight wins and produces a 93% playoff chance; 2-4 sinks that to 14%. She has Josh, Geoff and Chelsie next.
Domino can keep bending probability. It might be time to try bending a lineup, too.
11. Kelly (—) — 4-4 | 813.40 pts | .284 TW% | Playoffs: 18.7%
Mystique can appear to be anyone she wants.
Kelly’s lineup has mastered the opposite technique: making her best players appear to be benchwarmers. Through eight weeks, she has left 221.46 points on her bench, the most by any owner at this point since lineup data begins in 2018. The previous high was Brandon’s 214.24 in 2024. Keep up this pace and she’ll finish around 387, breaking Greco’s full-season record of 367.70.
Week 8 was a perfect little demonstration. After Tre Tucker and Emanuel Wilson combined for 39.8 points on her bench in Week 7, Kelly promoted them both. They combined for zero. Tucker didn’t even receive a target. Meanwhile, Michael Wilson scored 26.8 from the bench, helping push Kelly’s total unused points to a league-high 32.5. She scored 89.34 against Brandon but could have put up 121.84 with her best lineup.
To her credit, her defenses lead the league at 9.1 points per game, and she remains 4-4 despite a .284 true-win percentage. But she needs a 4-2 finish to get to eight wins, and the simulation gives her just a 17.9% chance of doing so. Kelly is still searching for her first playoff appearance. If she ever finds the real team hiding behind the mask, she might have a chance.
12. Beth Ann (—) — 1-7 | 732.80 pts | .136 TW% | Playoffs: <1%
The Phoenix is supposed to rise from the ashes.
Beth Ann would first like to confirm that something survived the fire. Lamar Jackson injured his thumb on Baltimore’s first play and now needs surgery and an IR stint. He and A.J. Brown both scored zero in her lineup as Samantha won 151.96–80.40. It was Beth Ann’s fourth last-place week, with zero true wins this time.
Her .136 true-win percentage through eight weeks is the lowest in league history, passing Trevor’s .159 in 2017. There were small sparks, plus the memory of her 2021 championship: Chuba Hubbard scored 24.9 and Harold Fannin Jr. supplied 23.4 on 10 catches and 154 yards. But with Tyler Shough her only other quarterback, the road forward is more about survival than an improbable playoff charge. Even a 6-0 finish would get her in just 17% of simulations.
The more immediate danger is the Poop Bowl. Beth Ann lost it last season, and only Jess has managed to lose it in consecutive years (2022 and 2023). That’s the sort of history nobody wants to make.
If Phoenix is going to rise again, now would be a terrific time for the first feather to appear.
The Playoff Picture
The Playoff Picture
At the top, Alex (99.6%) is almost a lock, with an 85.7% chance of earning a bye. Gray (94.2%) has the best true-win percentage and a 51.8% bye chance. Their Week 14 matchup could settle the top of the standings, though neither team can afford to assume the road there will be quiet.
The middle is where things are getting interesting. Brandon (78.5%) gained 16.1 percentage points despite another low-scoring win, while Josh (66.3%) gained a league-best 17.8 after breaking his losing streak. Greco (63.3%) fell 15.0 points, and Geoff (62.4%) slipped despite still sitting at .500. Samantha (41.8%) is surging in scoring, while Erik (40.2%) remains the strongest team on the wrong side of the record book. His playoff chances took the week’s largest hit: −16.6 percentage points.
For the outsiders, every remaining matchup matters. Jess (20.8%), Kelly (18.7%) and Chelsie (14.3%) are running out of room to make up ground.
Looking Ahead: The Battle for the Playoffs
With six weeks remaining, the X-Men are running out of time to save their seasons. And in Week 9, the greatest threat to mutantkind may be each other.
Domino faces Multiple Man, as Greco’s supernatural luck goes up against Josh’s seemingly endless supply of running backs. Rogue battles Storm, with Brandon hoping to steal another victory from a surging Samantha. And Magneto meets Juggernaut in a clash between two powerful teams that desperately need to turn their abilities into wins.
Elsewhere, Mystique and Havok square off in a matchup between Kelly and Jess that neither can afford to lose. Cyclops faces Colossus, as Gray looks to defend his position against a Chelsie team that’s been nearly indestructible, but rarely victorious. And Wolverine takes on Phoenix, with Alex looking to extend his dominance while Beth Ann searches for signs of life among the ashes.
The NFL’s trade deadline arrives Nov. 10, with the Worst League’s own deadline following Dec. 4. There’s still time to recruit reinforcements, discover new powers, or engineer a last-minute comeback. But with every passing week, the path to the postseason gets narrower.
The X-Men have always fought for a future where everyone belongs.
Unfortunately, the Worst League only has room for six.
