Week 1: Welcome to Loser’s Bay
Cold Open
EXT. LOSER’S BAY — NIGHT
Fog rolls over the harbor.
Twelve houses glow in the distance, lit by the flicker of televisions.
BRANDON (V.O.)
I’ve been in Loser’s Bay a good long while. Long enough to know this place has a way of making strange things seem ordinary.
Old photographs. Ancient draft boards. Trophies gathering dust.
BRANDON (V.O.)
But that inaugural Sunday of the 2026 season, with all 12 of us planted in front of our televisions and phones...
Lightning FLASHES.
BRANDON (V.O.)
...well. Something didn’t sit right.
INT. JESS’S LIVING ROOM — NIGHT
JESS watches the Bears.
Caleb Williams scores.
She smiles.
D’Andre Swift scores.
She smiles wider.
Behind her, a framed GREEN BAY PACKERS pennant slowly tilts sideways.
Jess rises, cheering, a strange look in her eyes.
JESS
Bear down.
THUNDER CRASHES.
INT. COMMISSIONER’S OFFICE — MORNING
ALEX wakes facedown on his desk, commissioner’s badge stuck to his forehead. An overturned bowl of psychedelic mushrooms sits nearby.
He checks his phone.
ALEX WINS
He pumps his fist. Then scrolls.
90.90 — 89.52
His smile disappears.
PENDING STAT CORRECTIONS
Alex VOMITS.
EXT. SUBURBAN STREET — DUSK
BETH ANN jogs through the neighborhood.
Her phone BUZZES: INJURY ALERT!
Behind her, THE BOOGEYMAN appears at the end of the block.
Another BUZZ.
A.J. BROWN — HIGH-ANKLE SPRAIN
Beth Ann runs faster.
The Boogeyman keeps walking.
FLASHES:
ZAY FLOWERS — HAMSTRING.
LADD McCONKEY — CHEST.
BROCK BOWERS — MENISCUS.
A surgical saw WHIRS.
QUICK MONTAGE:
— CHELSIE, eyes white, pulls an empty fishing net from the bay. A buoy floats past: COLSTON LOVELAND — 0 points.
— Beneath a storm shelter, KELLY places her best-scoring players on a stone altar marked BENCH.
— GEOFF admires his draft card: ROUND 10 — TEXANS D/ST. The SEA HAG appears at his window and scratches −4 points into the glass.
INT. LOSER’S BAY TOWN HALL — NIGHT
All 12 owners sit around a long table.
BRANDON
Now, bad luck’s one thing. But you live here long enough, you learn when something’s been invited in.
A beat.
BRANDON
Question was... which one of us opened the door?
At the far end sits GRAY in a WIDOW’S MAYE T-shirt.
Behind him hangs an ancient painting of the PATRIARCH OF LOSER’S BAY — long, scraggly beard, most wins, most points.
It also looks exactly like Gray.
Gray checks his phone.
GRAY
Hey, look at that. Another win. Biggest blowout of the week.
He looks up.
Everyone is staring at him.
A beat.
GRAY
...What?
LIGHTNING CRASHES.
The power goes out.
A church bell TOLLS.
CUT TO BLACK.
Consider that our tribute to Widow’s Bay, which won a record 14 Emmys this weekend. If the league felt a little cursed in Week 1, the timing was simply too good to ignore. Besides, after one Sunday featuring a bewitched Packers fan rooting for the Bears, the return of the injury Boogeyman, and a rising tide of points that produced the highest-scoring Week 1 ever, reality was already doing most of the writing.
But curses are difficult to quantify. Week 1 is not. Every September brings the same argument: does any of this actually mean anything, or are we all overreacting to one game? Fortunately, I have 15 completed seasons and 180 owner-seasons with which to ruin everyone’s preferred answer.
Does Week 1 Actually Mean Anything?
Every September brings the same argument: does any of this actually mean anything, or are we all overreacting to one game?
The answer, annoyingly, is both.
Does Week 1 Mean Anything?
Every Week 1 since 2011, sorted by where you finished that week
← Highest score in Week 1 · Where you ranked among the twelve · Lowest score in Week 1 →
The default view shows where teams from each Week 1 scoring slot eventually finished, using a top-six finish as the standard across all 15 seasons. You can also toggle to actual playoff berths and champions.
Among the 178 teams that opened with either a win or a loss, Week 1 winners eventually finished in the top six 62.9% of the time. Losers did it 37.1% of the time.
That makes winning your opener about 1.7× as likely to end in a top-six finish.
Meaningful? Absolutely.
A death sentence for Erik, Geoff, Chelsie, Samantha, Kelly and Beth Ann? Not quite.
Because the more interesting finding is where you finish in the Week 1 scoring table.
Lead the league in Week 1 and history is almost absurdly encouraging: 14 of 15 have gone on to finish in the top six. That’s 93.3%. Finish second and you’re still sitting at 80%.
After that?
Chaos.
Every Week 1 slot from third through ninth has historically finished between 40% and 60%. Seven straight positions that amount to some variation of a coin flip. Gray scoring the third-most points feels considerably more impressive than Alex scoring the ninth-most, but history politely declines to care.
At the bottom, however, the signal returns.
Only three of 15 teams that finished dead last in Week 1 scoring recovered to a top-six finish. Five went on to finish 12th. Combine the bottom three Week 1 slots and just 26.7% eventually cracked the top half.
Beth Ann, I regret to inform you that the Boogeyman has access to historical data.
And yet there is one final problem with declaring anything after seven days: eight of our 15 champions lost their Week 1 game.
Champions have emerged from nine different Week 1 scoring positions. Gray won the 2019 title after opening dead last with 59 points. Chelsie lost her opener last season, ranked eighth in scoring that week, and proceeded to win the championship.
In fact, eighth place has produced three champions—the same number as first and second.
So what does Week 1 actually mean?
It tells you where to look.
It does not tell you what you’ll find.
The Power Rankings
Enough history. Let’s judge the present.
As always, these rankings are based on True Win Percentage: the record you would have if you played all 11 other teams every week. Your actual record tells me whether you won. TW% tells me whether you deserved to.
Power Rankings
By True Win Percentage, through Week 1
| Counting the wins nobody played for… |
Toggle between Rankings, Scoring and Luck for three different ways to regret Sunday.
1. Brandon — 1-0 | 162.80 | 1.000 TW%
Brandon was the only owner who spent his first three picks on running backs. After one week, that bold commitment has earned him... the fourth-best starting RB score in the league.
James Cook III, Kenneth Walker III and Breece Hall combined for 63.80, just behind Jess, Josh and Erik. Which is amusing until you notice Brandon also had Jordan Mason on the bench; count him and the RB room jumps to No. 1.
The scarier development may be elsewhere. Christian Watson scored 32.70 on the bench, the second-highest benched score in the league, while Brandon still put up 162.80 — the fourth-highest Week 1 total ever. Ladd McConkey’s chest injury suddenly looks a little less catastrophic.
The last time Brandon led the league in Week 1 scoring was 2019. He went 9-3 and finished third. The time before that was 2017.
He won the title.
2. Jess — 1-0 | 160.26 | .909 TW%
Apparently the secret to being a Packers fan is drafting the Chicago Bears.
Caleb Williams was the highest-scoring quarterback in the league at 37.26. D’Andre Swift added 32.40. Derrick Henry supplied another 35.30, giving Jess the highest-scoring starting RB room in the league at 67.70.
Two of her three biggest scorers were Bears.
Her kicker plays for Green Bay.
Somewhere in Wisconsin, a cheesehead quietly cries itself to sleep.
Jess’s 160.26 was the fifth-highest Week 1 score in league history. Twelve years after her lone title — with three runner-up finishes since — she has once again found an emotionally complicated path toward contention.
3. Gray — 1-0 | 147.96 | .818 TW%
Gray’s receivers did something obscene.
Amon-Ra St. Brown, Zay Flowers and Parker Washington combined for 74.00 points, 19.60 more than the next-best starting WR group. All three cleared 19 points.
And that somehow understates it.
Isaiah Likely scored another 27.80 on Gray’s bench, the highest TE score in the entire league. The only bad news is that Flowers left the weekend with a hamstring injury.
The last time Gray led the league in receiving was 2016. That team went 11-2 with a .808 TW% — the best TW% of any completed season in league history.
It finished third.
Apparently elite receiving is a Gray family tradition. So is finding inventive ways not to turn it into a championship.
4. Erik — 0-1 | 143.16 | .727 TW%
Here is your annual reminder that fantasy football is not a just system.
Erik scored 143.16 points. He would have beaten eight of the 11 teams he didn’t play.
He drew Brandon.
That makes 143.16 the seventh-highest regular-season losing score in league history. Even if you add the comparable single-week playoff rounds from 2018 onward, it still ranks ninth among 1,244 losses.
And Erik already owns another one of those nine.
There is no column in my database labeled “You’ve got to be kidding me.”
5. Josh — 1-0 | 132.76 | .636 TW%
Jahmyr Gibbs: 33.60.
Ashton Jeanty: 32.70.
Josh’s first two draft picks combined for 66.30 points, which feels like it could be the birth of the league’s most terrifying RB tandem.
In fact, 66.30 was the seventh-best started RB duo in league history — and only Josh’s second-best ever. His 2020 Week 3 pairing of Alvin Kamara and Nick Chubb combined for 68.70.
Yes, Jess’s Derrick Henry–D’Andre Swift combo actually beat them by 1.40 points this week. But two backs both clearing 30 has happened only five times in 16 seasons, and two of those occurrences happened this Sunday.
Kyle Pitts Sr. scored zero, presumably to keep everyone humble.
6. Greco — 1-0 | 130.42 | .545 TW%
This was less supernatural event and more professional demolition.
Jonathan Taylor, Jalen Hurts, DJ Moore and Bucky Irving all topped 20 points as Greco beat Beth Ann by 42.96.
More importantly, Greco now sits on 99 career regular-season wins. (She has 107 total, including the playoffs.)
One more makes her only the fourth owner in league history to reach 100 regular-season wins, joining Gray, Brandon and Jess.
History awaits.
Probably sometime next Sunday afternoon.
7. Geoff — 0-1 | 127.16 | .455 TW%
Justin Jefferson scored 31.20, making him the highest-scoring receiver anyone actually started this week.
That qualifier is doing work. Jalen Coker and Christian Watson both scored more.
Both were sitting on benches.
Geoff’s more visible indignity was the Texans D/ST, a 10th-round investment that rewarded his faith with −4.00 points, the worst score by any starter.
Fortunately, it didn’t cost him the game.
Unfortunately, that is because Jess beat him by 33.10.
8. Chelsie — 0-1 | 116.90 | .364 TW%
There are losses.
Then there are losses where your bench quietly contains the winning lineup.
Jalen Coker scored 33.80, the highest WR score in the entire league, and watched from Chelsie’s bench. Dalton Kincaid scored another 18.00 while Colston Loveland started at tight end and produced 0.00.
Chelsie lost by 15.86.
Kincaid alone flips the result.
In total, Chelsie left 44.80 points on the bench — one of only two losses this week that optimal lineup decisions actually could have changed.
The defending champion may find comfort in this: she also lost her opener to Josh last season.
Then she won the league.
9. Alex — 1-0 | 90.90 | .273 TW%
Alex would like the record to reflect that he was due.
The record, annoyingly, supports him.
He is the only owner in league history with a career TW% above .500 and a losing regular-season record: .538 TW%, 97-101 actual. His career Luck is the worst among active owners.
So perhaps this 90.90-point victory is simply the universe returning a small deposit.
And “small” is appropriate.
Alex’s first six draft picks combined for 41.60 points. His second-highest scorer was his kicker. Jaylen Waddle scored 1.20.
He nevertheless beat Samantha by 1.38.
Sometimes restitution comes in humiliating installments.
10. Samantha — 0-1 | 89.52 | .182 TW%
Trey McBride scored 24.50, making him the highest-scoring tight end anyone actually started this week.
Again, the qualifier matters.
Gray had Isaiah Likely’s 27.80 sitting comfortably on his bench.
For Samantha, McBride was essentially the whole operation. No other starter reached 15, Ja’Marr Chase scored 3.20, and she lost to Alex by 1.38.
There is an additional sting here: Samantha was one of only two losing owners whose bench contained enough points to change the outcome.
The irony is that a one-point game against Alex actually is familiar territory — except the last time it happened, Samantha won 127.00–126.00 in 2019. This time, the margin swung the other way.
11. Kelly — 0-1 | 89.40 | .091 TW%
There was, at least, one piece of good news for Kelly this weekend:
The Bears were incredible.
Unfortunately, this happened during the rare season in which the Bears fan didn’t heavily invest in the Bears.
Six Chicago players are rostered across the league. Kelly owns one: Kyle Monangai.
He scored 20.40 points.
On her bench.
That would have made him her highest-scoring player, ahead of the Pittsburgh defense at 19.00. She also sat Jared Goff and T.J. Hockenson while their starters scored less.
The Bears finally become an offensive juggernaut, and Kelly somehow experiences it mostly as a spectator.
That may be the most Bears-fan outcome possible.
12. Beth Ann — 0-1 | 87.46 | .000 TW%
No, this was not Beth Ann’s worst Week 1 ever.
Good news.
It was her second-worst.
Less good news.
Her 87.46 trails only last season’s 82.82 among her eight openers, meaning the two worst starts of Beth Ann’s career have now occurred consecutively.
Lamar Jackson and Chuba Hubbard supplied most of the offense. A kicker was her third-highest scorer. A.J. Brown scored 5.60 and then joined the injury Boogeyman’s collection.
The contrast is particularly cruel because Beth Ann still owns the highest Week 1 score in league history: 179.08 in 2020.
From the highest opener anyone has ever posted to the two lowest openers of her own career.
Loser’s Bay provides perspective whether you request it or not.
POST-CREDITS SCENE
EXT. LOSER’S BAY — NIGHT
The town is quiet again.
Porch lights glow. TVs go dark. A few owners step outside, exhausted but alive.
JESS removes her Bears hat and looks around.
ALEX emerges from the Commissioner’s Office, still pale.
BETH ANN glances over her shoulder.
Nothing.
For the first time all night, the fog begins to lift.
Someone exhales.
Maybe it’s over.
A church bell TOLLS.
Everyone freezes.
A beat.
Then—
A SECOND TOLL.
Across Loser’s Bay, phones begin to BUZZ.
Screens light up.
WEEK 2
The fog rolls back in.
CUT TO BLACK.
For your consideration,
WORST
